This will be the last installment, after parts
one,
two, and
three here. As you can tell, I am not Pawlenty's biggest fan. Overall, he's been a good governor as in he's not a Democrat. But his inconsistencies are maddening, doubly so when people who should know better shrug them off. To suggest as the new
Party of Pawlenty site does that he is The Great Right Hope is short term thinking with serious long term consequences.
I've discussed the inconsistencies, like the Twins stadium and smoking ban bills. His (new) position on light rail and seeming signature issue of renewable energy will also fail to stand much scrutiny.
But let's consider the biggest inconsistency of all, assuming it is one, his utter collapse in the 2005 Legislative session, the year of the shutdown. One quick point, though. Former Senator Dean Johnson took total responsibility for that shutdown by adjourning the Senate hours early. Everyone else was doing their job, perhaps too well to suit Johnson.
The 2004 elections had reduced the GOP counts in the House, almost losing control in fact. Pawlenty hinted more than once that he had "heard the message" and began talking up spending now that the tax forecasts were looking better. All that talk of restraint and discipline was gone, to the point where he openly criticized his friends who helped elect him and supported him in 2003. What I assess as panic soon had him raising taxes, and openly lying about it. It clearly violated the spirit of the tobacco settlement, even if the courts lacked the courage to say it didn't violate the letter. It was also a rather cruel tax, it terms of who pays and that it was retroactively assessed.
Yes, Pawlenty panicked, his actions all tuned to satisfying the political needs of himself, not his party. Besides, it didn't work. Granted, Iraq, and some clever campaigning by the DFL were significant factors, but his own poor strategy didn't excite the base, either, leading to a primary challenge. Truth be told, it was a political fluke, the "E85" flap, that cost Mike Hatch a narrow win in 2006. How could "the best governor in America" as Bill Bennett recently described him, have lost?
Pawlenty got lucky again this cycle, when the DFL foolishly put Senator Larry Pogemiller in charge of their agenda. Pogemiller overplayed his hand by doing the one thing you don't want to do to Tim Pawlenty: corner him. The DFL agenda was so extreme that they couldn't even peel off a few GOP votes to override Pawlenty's veto of the Transporation Bill.
My view is that Tim Pawlenty will say and do what he thinks is best for Tim Pawlenty. He has flip-flopped (Twins stadium, light rail). He has lied (health impact "fee"), then criticized his fellow Republicans who called him on it. On energy, I can only assume he's making it up as he goes along. That's what's been happening all along, isn't it, starting with the 2002 GOP convention when he got the nomination away from Brian Sullivan, a real conservative.
Again, I don't see the future in this. The GOP already has all the mavericks it needs and more than the base wants. Look at his national couterpart, U.S. Senator John McCain. His best days are behind him, his "straight talk" popularity with the press largely gone as are his remaining Presidential aspirations. For in being that maverick, he has slowly but surely annoyed the base, one issue at at time.
Pawlenty is on the same course, and the Minnesota GOP will be the worse for it in the long run. The "E" (electability) factor is a powerful persueder but don't forget: if it weren't for Judi Dutcher's slip, he wouldn't be Governor now.