Speed Gibson

of the International Secret Police

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Property Tax Reform for Dummies

And I'm the dummy. I must be. My proposal below must somehow be fatally flawed, but I cannot imagine why. I also have to think others must have thought of this. It's like the FAIR tax, which also makes a lot of sense but will never happen.

I speak of property taxes for the public schools. I propose that the portion of public school money raised from property taxes be spent on property, not salaries. Looking at District 281, these amounts seem about in balance, so it's not a huge immediate change. But it should make increases smaller and more credible. As such, I would grant the School Boards the power to set operating levies without referendums, just like the city. Bond issues would still need voter approval. The rest of the money, for salaries and benefits, would come from the State.

By property I mean buildings, books, desks, computers, chairs, football fields, and so on, just no payroll. You can buy services like snow plowing with property tax money, but not hire your own people. Property taxes can buy school buses and gas, but not the drivers' pay and benefits.

Actually, it does get a little sticky for those who contract their bus service, which would be fully fundable from property taxes since there is no direct payroll. I'm sure it sounds like union-busting, but any attempt to pro-rate defeats the simplicity. Besides, the union can organize the contractor's employees as well and the school district can limit the bidding to union shops if desired.

The overall idea to not have the payroll so dependent on the district's property wealth as today. That is the intent of the current system, but it obviously doesn't work if the districts always can un-level the field by raising property taxes, much of which businesses pay.

So, where did I go wrong?

Practice Practice Practice

Long before that quick brown fox came on the scene, we had to practice typing "Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their Party" over and over again. For those blanching at the thought of Senator John McCain winning the Republican nomination for President, these words finally have meaning. It could be over in a week.

It could be over in the Democratic Party just as quickly.

Attend your caucus!

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Be True to Your School

It happens every time. Propose closing an elementary school and suddenly the affected parents and staff mobilize to prevent it. It's pretty much the same script. "We understand the need to cut the budget, but when you look at all our school has going for it, clearly closing _________ Elementary makes no sense."

District 279, the Osseo School District, is now making its budget cuts, which include closing schools. Yes, they did get one referendum passed, but two failed and the District has to cut $16 million. Closing Cedar Island Elementary in Maple Grove is part of the preliminary plan, and the protests have started already. Posters and T-shirts have been made, and a "rally" organized and held at the school. Over the next few weeks, they will go through the same process as District 281 (Robbinsdale) did and will do again next year.

Is there a time when the public school system ever has better public support, specifically when a school is close by, particularly at the Elementary level? Clearly not. Talk of rising class sizes and cutting Advanced Placement programs get yawns by comparison. More precisely, these closings reduce public support far more is gained by improving the open schools or the District overall. This is especially true in larger districts with significant differences in demographics. But here it is happening just within the monolithic Maple Grove area served by the Osseo schools.

Retailers know and promote the products their customers like best, and make good money selling them. Everyone is happy, including the customers. Shouldn't the school districts start thinking this way? What is it the parents and taxpayers value most? Neighborhood schools it would seem. But what do the districts do when money is seemingly tight? Close neighborhood schools.

Now some closings must happen if enrollment drops significantly, especially if the District overbuilt when it was rising. But the Baby Boom has played out and we're not likely to see such waves in most urban districts again. Is it wrong to now first seek stability in school facilities, what the parents seem to value most?

Monday, January 28, 2008

Do Middle Schools Work? Part 2

In Part 1, I described another approach to education, where the "middle school" / "junior high" layer is removed. Instead, there is a K-8 elementary school and a 9-12 secondary school.

I'm new to this but I like it already. In my "Project 281" travels, I have found that parents take great pride in their neighborhood elementary schools in particular and their high school in general. There is no love for middle schools, only some admiration here and there for a specific teacher. Middle school is to be endured, not enjoyed, not really remembered. All I personally remember is the transition. My fond memories were from Brookside Elementary (a block away) and St. Louis Park High School.

Getting back to 281, which has three aging middle schools at least 10 aging elementary schools, maybe it's time for a change. Maybe the new elementary schools should be made larger and appropriate for K-8. As a transition / prototype, Plymouth Middle School, currently being updated, could become such a school, consolidating with nearby Pilgrim Lane Elementary.

This is speculation at this point but if public schools are to survive, changes of this magnitude may be required.

In Over Their Head

Poor Chad the Elder, living in my home town that I left in 1974. The City of St. Louis Park has given up on its dream of eco-friendly wireless internet service, replaced by the nightmare of a potential $3.8 million loss. I calculate that The Elder's share will be about $182.

The firm they contracted has never installed a solar-powered system before, but the city claims to have done the proper due diligence nonetheless. One step they missed was to ask the residents what they wanted, for what many want now is to have those "ugly" solar panels taken down.

This is the dot-com bubble all over again. Much of that bubble resulted from the ability of charlatans to sell unworkable Internet systems to companies overly scared of being left behind. They looked like credible vendors. They did marketing, made presentations, negotiated contracts and prices just like "real" vendors, but of course, all that contract language proved worthless when the quacks couldn't deliver and disappeared in the ensuing wave of bankruptcies.

Apparently this "cutting edge" city (per Mayor Jeff Jacobs) was worried that Edina was going to get there first, but there is no there there. There is no crying, unmet demand for wireless internet. There are many choices at many speeds and prices, using dial up, DSL, or Cable. You can provide your own home wireless, too, fully encrypted if desired.

To provide this unneeded service with solar power is ridiculous, given our climate and the small amounts of energy involved. This was all sizzle, no steak, i.e., not one tangible benefit. The real truth is that adding a layer of complexity usually adds something to go wrong, and it sure did here. What money it might have saved is academic now, given this huge loss.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Do Middle Schools Work? Part 1

Consider this from Time Magazine (Aug 2005):
It's 10 a.m. on a bright May day, and the arts wing at Gustav A. Fritsche Middle School in Milwaukee, Wis., is hopping. In a band room, 21 members of the jazz ensemble are rehearsing Soul Bossa Nova with plenty of heart and impressive intonation, in preparation for a concert downtown. In another room, woodblocks, timpani and bells are whipping up a rhythmic frenzy as the 75-member Fritsche Philharmonic Orchestra tackles Elliott Del Borgo's Aboriginal Rituals. In an art room, eighth-graders are shaping clay vessels to be baked in the school kiln. Down the hall, students are dabbing acrylic paints on canvas to create vivid still lifes à la Vincent van Gogh. At 10:49, when the 82-min. arts period ends, kids of all sizes, colors and sartorial stripes pour out of classrooms, jostling and joking, filling the hallway with the buzz of pubescent energy. Then it's off to language arts, math, social studies and the array of other subjects offered at this sprawling arena for adolescents.

A few blocks away, at Humboldt Park Elementary School, which serves kindergarten through eighth grade, a charming scene unfolds in Karen Hennessy's classroom. Her kindergartners are enjoying a visit from their eighth-grade "buddies." All around the room, big kids sit knees to chest in miniature chairs or cross-legged on the alphabet carpet. Each little kid has chosen a picture book to share with a big buddy. Some lean on eighth-grade laps as they listen. Logan Wells, a strapping 14-year-old, reads The Little Engine That Could to Alec Matias and Jacob Hill. Jacob, 5, seems mesmerized equally by the bright illustrations and by the eighth-grader turning the pages. He presses against Logan as if to absorb some big-kid magic. The older boy reads on with gentle forbearance.

If you were 13 years old, where would you rather be? Big, frenetic Fritsche, with its thrilling range of arts classes, bands, Socratic seminars and TV studio, all aimed at 1,030 sixth-, seventh- and eighth-graders? Or calm and cozy Humboldt Park, where the teachers seem to know the names and histories of all 585 students, ages 4 to 14? If you're the parent of a 13-year-old, which would you choose for your child? The two schools represent two sides of a debate that has ripped through Milwaukee and other U.S. cities. For the past decade, middle schools have been the educational setting for roughly two-thirds of students in Grades 6 through 8. But increasingly, communities are questioning whether they really are the best choice for this volatile age group.
I found this and many other interesting articles by web surfing after one of the local school professionals I met with last week put the "K-8" bug in my ear. I had never heard of this concept, at least in America. I had only heard of K-6, K-5, and recently, K-2/3-5 pairing as proposed in District 281. But K-8?

Actually, that is sort of what is going on at the old Robbinsdale High School, which houses a K-5 Spanish Immersion Elementary operation and a general 6-8 "Robbinsdale Middle School" in separate areas of this large structure. But as the Time article suggests, the idea provides for some contact and interaction between the grades.

This got me thinking about our former Minnesota Education Commissioner Cheri Yecke, who had openly criticized the middle school concept. If I remember, she was concerned that mediocrity was being tolerated in the name of other goals and programs, like self-esteem.

Personally, I have to admit that 7th Grade, my first year after leaving dear old Brookside School in St. Louis Park was my hardest transition, even with all my 6th grade friends there. The 9th graders who towered over us didn't exactly go out of their way to help us along, either.

My informal research suggests that indeed, test scores for middle school / junior high students seem to suffer from this transition as well. The bridge from one room to scheduled classes has to happen sometime, but maybe the onset of puberty isn't the best time. In fact, maybe having the familiar settings and routine of elementary school are helpful during this period.

More in Part 2.

Friday, January 25, 2008

On Tour

I didn't post between Sunday and today, but I have been out and about on "Project 281." Just to remind everyone, my goal is not "get" someone or pile on the known troubles with our public school system. I'm just trying to understand the great mystery that is their finances, and maybe along the way, help the 281 folks see things from the outside better.

I've been to two neighboring districts, to see what the Open Enrollment situation is, should Northport Elementary close after the 2008-09 school year as seems almost certain. I have meetings coming up next week with other public officials next week, and I'm continuing to study the growing amount of financial data I've collected. Let me add that the District has been fully open and helpful to date.

I'm getting the impression so far that the Robbinsdale schools never really planned for the baby boom to fizzle out. They peaked at about 28,000 students around 1970, now just under 13,000 today and still falling as the area continues to mature. That's not the fault of the current administration, but it does explain much of the difficulty it now faces, including the east-west divide.

Winnetka Elementary was built in 1967 and closed just 11 years later. Crystal Heights Elementary was closed in 1982 after just 17 years of operation. Olson Elementary was built in 1971 and lasted only 9 years, though it has been partially used since 2000.

The example most remembered in the east is the closing of the Robbinsdale High School in 1982, just 12 years after opening Armstrong High School in the west in 1970. Many think that building Cooper High School in the middle of the district in 1964 was the real miscalculation.

To be fair, the needs of the 1960's were immediate and while those in charge then probably knew enrollment was peaking, I suspect few knew just how far and how fast, not to mention the demographic shifts. But that was yesterday. The current demographic trends are well understood now, enough to build a more strategic facilities plan and a roadmap to get there.

As I said, this is an impression. Regardless, I don't want second-guess past decisions. We do have an immediate, awkward problem of an aging school in an older neighborhood, with no good way to redistribute its student population should it have to close for financial reasons.

The McCain Mutiny?

A respected colleague of DFL persuasion asked me today, innocently and seriously, if I thought the McCain nomination was a done deal. The prospect has reached the worrisome stage.

The best analysis / rebuttal of McCain's "straight talk" I've seen to date comes from Ann Coulter at Townhall.com:
Of course, I might lie constantly too, if I were seeking the Republican presidential nomination after enthusiastically promoting amnesty for illegal aliens, Social Security credit for illegal aliens, criminal trials for terrorists, stem-cell research on human embryos, crackpot global warming legislation and free speech-crushing campaign-finance laws.

I might lie too, if I had opposed the Bush tax cuts, a marriage amendment to the Constitution, waterboarding terrorists and drilling in Alaska.

And I might lie if I had called the ads of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth "dishonest and dishonorable."
That's just for openers! The February Caucus should prove interesting once we get past hearing about Ron Paul.

Sine Die or next Monday, Whichever Comes First

I have to take a little personal interest in this, given that Lyndon Carlson's district is just down the road. His idea to grant the Legislature, even just its leadership, the power to call themselves into special session has to be one of the stone cold, dumbest ideas I have ever seen in politics.

Instead, I propose a Constitutional Amendment to lock the Legislative offices at the Capitol during the off-season. The building will be opened four weeks before the start of the annual session, one week before a special session. It will be closed up tight one week afterward. That includes staff.

Legislators will actually be expected to live in their districts when not in session, presumably working at their day jobs.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Big Idea, No Follow Through

Remember the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Christmas present to Prime Minister Pawlenty, the "analysis" that characterized him as a "man of big ideas but little followup"? They listed this (2005/2006):
Big idea: Proposes broad action to deny services to illegal immigrants.
Result: No significant change in state policy.
There's more to this story.

Give him a break, you say? He just signed an executive order on this, didn't he? Yes he did, but it was long overdue.

I'm reorganizing my hard drive, and came across my archive of Taxpayer's League Live on KTLK-FM. Someday maybe I'll put together a CD or two of "The Best of David Strom: The FM Year" but for now, I thought I'd listen to their first show while dragging files into their new folders. Less than ten minutes into the show, I heard this:
David Strom: Let's talk about what is probably the opening shot of the Governor's race. In fact, both Mike Hatch and Tim Pawlenty have come out with their opening shots this week for their campaign themes in the Governor's race. Tim Pawlenty really brought up a very interesting topic. He's brought out the illegal immigration issue and he's really pushing this very hard and I think he's done a brilliant job doing this because he's put his opponents in a box. He's talking a really hard core game about going after illegal immigration and doing something about it, but there's not one proposal that he has in there that isn't absolutely 100 percent totally common sensical.

Margaret Martin: He's really taken on the mayors of both Minneapolis and St. Paul, with the attempt to get rid of their sanctuary policy about not allowing illegal immigrants to be raided, basically allowing them to live there without having to worry about being arrested by at least local officials. They can't do anything about the INS, obviously.

David: I just think this is brilliant, though. This is absolutely brilliant. There are just not that many people who live in the United States of America who think it ought to be the policy of local lawmakers to say "you can break this set of laws in our territory and do without any fear of repercussions." That's essentially what these sancutary laws say. Pawlenty isn't saying that he's going to turn the cops in Minneapolis and St. Paul into immigration officials. He isn't saying that they're going to be required to go out and seek illegal immigrants and try to kick them out. All he said is that he does not want any municipalities in the State of Minnesota to prevent any law enforcement officials from asking about your immigration status.

Margaret: He also wants law enforcement officials to document someone's immigration status at the time of arrest, making that part of this process.

David: Let's say Moussaoui who was here in Eagan, at a flight school, [...] gets pulled over for a traffic violation. His visa is expired. Why is it a policeman should not even be able to ask about that, which is a policy in the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul?

(Edited for clarity.)
I had to recheck everything. Maybe it was 2008, not 2006 I was listening to. Not, the timestamps check and it's in stereo and the Governor's race is on against Mike Hatch. This was broadcast January 7, 2006.

At least he signed the Executive Order this time, possibly because of the GOP convention coming here this fall.

Friday, January 18, 2008

American Ingenuity

The grocery business is highly competitive. Remember the Lund's store that had to close in Eden Prairie, whose residents preferred lower prices at Cub? But there are niche and upscale market segments out there, served by Trader Joe's, Whole Foods, and Simon Delivers, for example. Byerly's and Lunds now offer online/pickup shopping, and even some traditional stores like Rainbow (Roundy's) still bag your groceries.

No matter where I shop, though, I find it's still an effort I endure more than enjoy. But there's hope thanks to new technology now being piloted at Shop-Rite, CRM Smartcarts. Shop-Rite operates about 200 stores in the New York area.

The idea is that you can pre-shop on line, then via a customer loyalty card identify yourself to your shopping cart, equipped with a mobile computer that will import your shopping list. Further, it maps out the store, showing you where to find the items, perhaps helping you pick specific brands or highlighting appropriate specials or quantity discounts.

It manages electronic coupons, too, and presumably expedites checkout. Presumably, your online account could then be posted with your "as bought" results and track your annual expenses.

Whoever implements this first here will very likely get my business, even if it costs a little more.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Don't Wait for the Verdict

In a preemptive move, the "281 CARE" group that helped defeat the District 281 referendum filed suit to have a law declared unconstitutional. The law ostensibly prohibits false speech regarding school referendums. It's a bad law and the Legislature would do well to repeal it this session.

The faulty assumption underlying this law is that public school districts are not political organizations and therefore the First Amendment does not protect those who would criticize them. The truth is, of course, is that public schools districts are 100 percent political entities, no different than a city or a county or a state agency. The notion that private citizens cannot criticize those who can tax them is chilling - and certainly unconstitutional, at least in the America I grew up in.

Look, if lying in the public sphere were to become illegal in this state, a certain Regent of the University of Minnesota would now be serving time in Stillwater. The larger question is, just what is truth?

The chairs of the "vote yes" committee had a letter published in the local Sun Post to expose three such false claims by 281 CARE. As I posted at the time, they were 0 for 3 trying to refute them and perhaps misspoke themselves. Do we want the courts trying to sort such a mess out? That's why we have a First Amendment, to preclude the government from deciding truth, especially regarding government and politics.

We all know who had this law written and why. Perhaps they will cut their losses and have it repealed before losing in court. Regardless, the various school districts themselves should step up and pledge never to bring an action using this unjust, unworkable law.

L A Weight Loss goes belly up

For those of us competing in the Anti-Strib Biggest Loser contest, per Junk Food Science there is one less strategy available.
... Pure Weight Loss, Inc. (formerly LA Weight Loss Centers) based in Horsham, Pennsylvania, went out of business on January 4th — shutting down all 400 corporate centers across the country — and leaving countless numbers of consumers high and dry. Unsuspecting customers had prepaid unfathomable amounts of money for expensive weight loss products, diet bars and “nutrition” supplements... money they aren’t likely to ever see.
While I have some sympathy for the victims, this is a teachable moment.

For one thing, you should always beware of getting into anything with big money up front. In this case, L.A. Weight Loss was already famous for very high pressure sales for very high prepaid expenses. So why did it work before? And why did it fail now?

The failure resulted from running out of gullible customers. I'm sorry if I'm blunt. I remember all kinds of marketing they did this past year, and I'll bet their marketing costs were rising rapidly trying to prop up the falling sales. It rather resembles a Ponzi scheme, as all that prepaid money was apparently not escrowed.

People were willing to try it because their basic message was that we (L. A. Weight Loss) can take off the weight. It's our problem, not yours. People love hearing that it's not their fault, that those prepackaged portions are as sumptuous and satisfying as portrayed, and that their supplement pills will bring modern science to bear.

Contrast that to Weight Watchers, which is pay as you go, about $40 a month in my case. They have snacks, scales, cookbooks, and other aids, but all that's optional. They have two plans and weekly meetings, but otherwise make it very clear that only you can make it work. Follow their plan and you will lose weight. Don't and you won't. (I'm a client, not an employee or stockholder.)

And don't think you can do what they do on NBC's Biggest Loser, either, losing 2-3 percent of your weight a week. It's high stress, especially for older bones, and requires constant medical supervision. Lose just 1 pound a week and you'll be over 50 pounds lighter in just a year.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

District 281 - We Have a Decision

Tonight, the Robbinsdale Area School Board elected not to close Northport Elementary or any other school next year (2008-2009). As I understand it, they essentially swapped some cuts from 2009-2010 for the savings closing a school would have generated in 2008-2009. Yes, we'll have to go through all this again a year from now unless more money is found, possibly from another attempt at passing the failed Referendum in some form.

Tonight's action enacted over $5 million in budget cuts. The school closing was only about 10 percent of that, so while the decision was jubilantly received by the 50+ in attendance, the other 90 percent of the cuts remain unchanged and will be painful, district wide.

Last night's straw poll 4-3 result favoring closing Northport changed to the official 5-2 vote against tonight. In the end, I think the Board realized that it just wasn't prepared to properly close Northport. The ripples would seriously affect 2 or 3 nearby elementary schools and drawing new boundaries with the remaining schools clumped to the west would have been challenging.

I also think the Board realized that this is the wrong time to aggravate the already strained feelings across this large district. Robbinsdale residents and leaders are still brooding about the closing of the Robbinsdale High School 25 years ago, for example, even though it now serves as home to the Spanish Immersion program and as a middle school.

What's needed is vision, to take this process beyond a one or two year viewpoint. That was part of the passing resolution, that the "vision" process interrupted by the levy failure be resumed, and drawing on the considerable input received the past few weeks. Remodels and updates will be deferred until this is complete, except for Plymouth Middle School's projects already in progress.

It's been interesting and informative, and the Board made the right decision in my opinion.

Monday, January 14, 2008

District 281 - School Board Work Session

Tomorrow, Tuesday, January 15, the Robbinsdale Area Schools (281) will make its decision on budget cuts. Tonight (Monday) was a work session to hash it out one more time among 5 options to cut a total of $5 million from the 2008-09 budget.

This work session was a success in that it is now down to two options - close Northport Elementary or close none at all this coming year. The Board is as evenly split as it can be, and all gave good reasons to support their point of view.

This is new ground for 281, having for the first time to consider closing a school for financial reasons, not declining enrollment from the baby boom era.

I'll have more to say tomorrow night once the vote is final.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Funding Formulas 2008

As I illustrated with five posts last month, Minnesota's K-12 funding formulas are a mess, to the point where even the Legislature's own financial staffers can follow the math.

The P. S. Minnesota organization wants to reform such funding. Openly, they admit they want another $2 billion added to the State budget for our public schools. And, they want funding to be "reliable" which seems to be a code word for "automatic" and "unquestioned". Here are their nine guidelines for a new set of formulas:
  1. It should be targeted toward student achievement of local, state, and national standards.

  2. It should account for differences in district property wealth through a system of equalization. Said system should be based on an accurate economic representation of the use of a given property coupled with a sensitivity toward the income produced by that property or, in the case of a residence, the income of that property owner.

  3. It should account for differences in individual students such as family wealth, family language, and special needs.

  4. It should account for the unique characteristics of individual districts such as cost variances due to factors like geographic remoteness, declining enrollment, and market-based labor cost differentials.

  5. It should provide for limited local discretion by both the local school board and by district voters to account for marketplace competition and community expectations.

  6. It should target resources into capital-intensive obligations such as textbooks and non-technology instructional resources, student and system technologies, annual and deferred maintenance expenses, and transportation system operations.

  7. It should offer equalized access to the acquisition of new and/or remodeled school facilities while also providing incentives for collaboration and sharing of resources when possible.

  8. Both base costs and adjustments should be adequate and established in accordance with research-based methodologies which calculate the real costs associated with meeting state and federal standards. Such a system should significantly reduce the need for school districts to rely on operating referenda to support to support basic instructional costs.

  9. A new general education levy, equalized with state and local resources, should be used to adequately fund the base costs in the new formula.
Tenets 1 through 7 are essentially met today by the current system. Points 8 and 9 is where the money is, that we simply tally what is spent and invoice the state for those "real costs" not covered by property taxes or the infamous mandates. There isn't a word about innovation or efficiency, and no real commitment to success. We will only target resources toward that end.

I agree with some of this, starting with the role of property taxes in funding public education. (The voucher debate is out of scope for now.) I could see property taxes for school facilities, specifically the land and buildings, and related costs like custodians. I could see parents directly responsible for transportation and meals, and some activity participation fees. I would welcome the end of all federal education funding but regardless, the rest should yes, be funded by the State.

The larger point I'd make is that we probably had some goals like this once upon a time and we still wound up with the convoluted system we have now. The P. S. Minnesota folks (largely insiders) are dreaming if they think guidelines or research will keep the Legislature from tinkering with formulas for political ends each and every session.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

The Bucket List

A nice, sweet movie for us older adults. Predictable script, but you really don't mind. Three stars out of four.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Another Tale of Two Cities

It's not a done deal, but the Minneapolis Schools have reached a tentative agreement with its teachers union. The St. Paul Schools did earlier, and the new pact was just ratified.

While the St. Paul contract further entrenches seniority, the Minneapolis contract breaks from that sacred union concept. Per the Star Tribune:
At each school, the principal, an administrator and at least two teachers will form a hiring committee for interviewing. The group will interview at least 10 teachers -- the five most senior and five others who are seen as qualified. The committee will seek consensus on new hires, but if not, the principal will have the final say.
I think this is remarkable and I applaud all parties.

Remembering 2004

Rush Limbaugh had a good observation about polling gone wrong. Remember how all the exit polling showed John Kerry clearly ahead in 2004? One of his entourage said that Election Day, "May I be the first to call your Mr. President?"

But the pollsters were wrong and President Bush was re-elected. There were recriminations a la 2000, focusing on Ohio. The pollsters couldn't be wrong; clearly there must be tampering. But the gap was too large. In the words of Hugh Hewitt, "if it ain't close, they can't cheat."

Now, here in New Hampshire, the pollsters forecast a double digit win for Obama, but Clinton winds up winning narrowly. The turnout is higher than expected. There is a shortage of paper ballots and a noticeable difference in results between paper and electronic voting.

This time, though, there isn't a peep in the press or the party, almost relief in fact. Some were feeling guilty for getting too caught up in the Obama moment.

The explanation? Why the voters must have lied to the pollsters. Some told them publicly they were voting one way but voted the another. Some McCain supporters must have gone to the wrong line. Others said they weren't going to vote, but changed their mind as soon as they hung up the phone, that the calls themselves raised the turnout.

But fundamentally, the pollsters were once again right, or at least did the best they could with these inscrutable, irascible voters. No need to look for any irregularities.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

One Last Thought on SD 25

As you might guess, The Final Word segment I heard on the Patriot this past Saturday is still bothering me. I have one more question, one I need answered before I attend my first caucus. Strictly speaking, I did attend one a few years ago, to take my high school son to see one for civics class. Actually, we made both the DFL and GOP events. It was my son's first encounter with a genuine tin foil hat operative, convinced that the Pentagon was engaging in mind control via microwaves. Guess which party's caucus featured this entertainment.

My question is this: does "being a Republican" require blind loyalty? I'm not talking David Duke here, but I am talking about RINO's. I heard quite a bit on the subject during the broadcast.

Commenters and callers have suggested that the GOP candidate Ray Cox could be called a moderate. That made no difference to Brodkorb, but it's understandable why the Conservative base might decide to skip this election, especially when the Minneapolis Star Tribune endorsed Cox.

Me, I can accept a lot of "diversity" as long as it isn't just about big pork projects. There also has to be honesty and enough of a core to work with, which is why I wrote off Prime Minister Pawlenty over two years ago. I'll be as generous and forgiving as I can, but I'll make the decision if asked to go an extra mile for candidate X.

To demand blind loyalty, that winning is everything (how much has State spending risen under Pawlenty?), is not something the State party leadership can demand or expect.

Monday, January 7, 2008

School Board Meeting - Jan 7

I attended tonight's regular meeting, but there's little to report on the Budget Cut front. That resumes next Monday at a work session, 5:30 pm at District headquarters. There is some sort of legal or union deadline that requires final approval of the budget cuts the next day, January 15. Therefore, a special Board Meeting will happen that evening. That will determine how many schools to close, probably one, but won't specifically name which one.

I learned that if one or more is to close, then another round of public hearings will happen in February. On a hunch, I also asked Superintendent Mack to confirm a suspicion, which he did. I'll need some time to follow up on that lead.

Another couple of fun facts: it costs the District about $30,000 to conduct a referendum. If they were to do it by mail, which is allowed and at almost any time, it's more like $100,000 per referendum.

Cold Reality

I had an hour to kill, so I put together a spreadsheet with sunrise and sunset times by month, plus the average high/low and record high/low temperatures. I then calculated the usage of a light bulb that switches on at sunset, off at sunrise. This computed to about 4,300 hours. This would cost about $43 a year to light a 100 watt bulb at 10 cents a kilowatt hour.

A CFC bulb is about 4 times as efficient as a TAE (incandescent) bulb, so it will cost about $12, saving you $31 a year, just for that one bulb. Or would it?

Suppose it was an indoor bulb as most are, say a hallway you want illuminated all night for the kids' peace of mind. Is all that heat wasted? Not if it's below 70 degrees outside, i.e., the furnace could be running anyway. What my crude spreadsheet tells me is that occurs at least 80% of the time. Don't forget, the average low temperature is 64 degrees in July.

It wouild be fair to knock that down a bit for peak summer days given that the home's residual heat would swamp such effects, but the bulb also runs far fewer hours per day. Even so, the TAE bulb does not waste significant energy overall for fall, winter, and spring.

Granted, your (non-electric) furnace is likely more efficient at producing heat. But the greenies seem not to worry about such things when urging us to plug in an electric car at night, and this varies significantly on a house by house basis.

The optimum solution is obviously to put in a TAE bulb during the heating season and use the CFC bulb in the summer. But the hell with that. If you feel better putting in CFC's everywhere, fine. I have about 10 CFC's myself, but I'll decide when and where.

Spring Semester Begins

I've been sifting through the District 281 budgets a bit, but waited for classes to resume today, January 7th. Tonight is the first Board meeting of 2008, including the induction of two new members. The 7 pm meeting is preceded by "listening time" at 6 pm.

The update on the budget reduction process is item 9 of 13 on the agenda. A work session is scheduled for next Monday, January 14, followed by a special Board meeting on Tuesday, January 15 to make the final decisions. As I last understood it, if a school is closed, the exact school(s) may be decided later in the month.

More Thoughts on SD 25

I'll confess right now to babbling given my inexperience, but I'm wondering if there is some misconception as to the role of the state party, what's expected of its local units, and of course, the voters. For the record, I will be attending my first party caucus next month, so while I vote at least 90% Republican, I have no official connection to date. And I also did nothing in regard to SD 25.

On "The Final Word" (Saturdays 3-5 pm on 1280 The Patriot) we heard Michael Brodkorb lashing out at those who didn't somehow get involved with the Senate District 25 special election, lost handily and unexpectedly to the DFL. Brodkorb says it was a lack of GOP effort, statewide. Drew Emmer contends that we were bested, even blindsided by a clever DFL.

It's a fact of life that the DFL is going to cheat. That's the whole purpose of same day voter registration, giving driver licenses to illegal aliens, instant runoff voting, and the like. Also, as Emmer noted on the broadcast, the DFL has paid volunteers. Worse, we now have a corrupt Secretary of State who has no trouble with any of this, nor do the print and TV media. We have an Attorney General who admitted she isn't up the job by hiring Mike Hatch. Our State Auditor is still wondering why the rows have numbers and the columns have letters. The more important the election, the more of a safety margin we'll need. So yes, vote for vote, we have to work harder.

That said, an election was held by the rules and the DFL won. The voters of that District elected who they wanted. Those that didn't vote can't complain. Is that so terrible?

Brodkorb thinks so, for now the DFL has the 2/3 majority to override vetoes. Pogemiller unchained! The Governor powerless! He neglected in his emails to mention that the House is not yet veto-proof. In fact, had I received one of those "call to action" emails, I would have been skeptical. Why is it necessary to over-state the situation in order to bring out the troops?

I have another question. Is it ethical for outsiders (for either party) to make phone calls and go door knocking if it is just a local election?

Yes, it shifts the balance of power in St. Paul more so than if the Senate were 34-33 or 60-17. But this is buzzer shot thinking. Exciting as such finishes are, basketball games are never won or lost solely on the last shot. A hundred or more other scoring or defensive opportunities set up the final seconds. Similarly, the 2006 election results set up this special election's importance. Had we won or lost 2 more seats then, this discussion wouldn't be happening.

So back to the original question: what is expected? Are all other SD units supposed to swarm, dare I say overpower the opposition in a special election like this? I ask that of both parties. By what moral right? Aren't we at least annoyed by all the out of state money (and candidate) flowing into the 2008 U.S. Senate race against Norm Coleman?

What is appropriate is support from the state party organization, to help the local organization with advice, training, and certainly a share of the expenses. Residents in neighboring districts can certainly volunteer to help if the First Amendment still applies to elections. But for the state party organization to demand such efforts before or shame the lack of such efforts afterward crosses a line in my opinion, again, for either party.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Walking update

Yesterday, I finished walking all of Spring Lake Park, city number 19 in my little hobby. Blaine and Coon Rapids are next.

Today, I completed the Columbia Park neighborhood of Minneapolis. That makes 7 neighborhoods done, 80 to go, with some of those partially done.

This is part of the training for Anti-Strib Biggest Loser, with nearly 40 miles done in the last few days.

And the Award Goes To ...

MDE (Michael Brodkorb, co-host of the NARN Final Word) is now giving out awards. The "Man Not in the Arena" award went to Drew Emmer, with an honorable mention to Mitch Berg.

Having heard the heated exchange between these three regarding the upset DFL win in SD 25 on The Final Word this afternoon, I think Brodkorb needs a trophy, too. I hereby award him the first ever James Taggart Cup. If you've read Atlas Shrugged, you'll remember that James Taggart was forever saying, "No one can blame me!"

There is much I could write on what I heard and how it was said. Let me just say that that the show credits should read: "and Mitch Berg as the Voice of Reason."

FYI, Mr. Brodkorb owes Mr. Emmer an apology. When Emmer said, "I regret the assertion by Michael that a good Republican or a good Conservative would have been down there." Brodkorb: "That's not what I said."

Here's what Brodkorb had said earlier: "It's very interesting to have two people who did nothing to help out with the special election to become two of the first people the morning [after] to point out how everyone else stumbled." Close enough.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Who Won?

I normally focus on local issues, but Iowa is close enough.

I don't think the Iowa caucus told us much about the Democratic Party race. The big three more or less split, and in the order such that all will continue on. Any others who now drop out were dead going in.

On the Republican side, Romney certainly has to be a bit disappointed given the millions of dollars he spent. But again, no one really died that wasn't already dead.

I didn't tune in until about 11 pm, so I missed Hugh Hewitt giving the duke to Romney somehow. But I am enjoying Rusty Humphries who largely refuses to take this whole procedure very seriously.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Molnau's time is up

It's time for Carol Molnau to step down as Minnesota's Commissioner of Transportation. She has had five years to tame this unwieldy organization and has little if anything to show for it. MnDot hasn't run any worse, barring any surprising findings by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigation. She has saved us taxpayers several hundred thousand dollars by jointly serving at Lt. Governor, but we can and must afford better.

We must get a better MnDot head, preferably someone with both professional and political skills. We've seen what happens when one of these is missing, with Diane Mandernach (professional only) and Carol Molnau (political only). We may have to lure someone in from another state, but we need someone to take charge of MnDot, with three goals:
  1. Improve the department's image, starting by finishing the I-35W bridge promptly and cleaning up other projects.

  2. Find and fix the management problems of which Sonia Pitt is but one example.

  3. Give the Governor and Legislature needed guidance to avoid further rail boondoggles and disproportionate rural highway spending.

Prime Minister Pawlenty should get this taken care before the start of the 2008 Legislative session, to avoid an almost certain show trial in the Minnesota Senate, bridge investigation number 5.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Coming Soon to ... St. Paul?

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the 126 year old Cincinnati Post has ceased publication, leaving the Enquirer in charge. It sounds like something that might soon happen here, to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Even corporate greed isn't powerful enough to make the Pioneer Press change course, or at least stop overtly offending so many potential customers. Looking at today's (Jan 1) paper, if anything, the bias might be getting worse.

The gem of the Editorial page features an article by Bill McKibben on global warming. Basically, we are all dead men, with CO2 already above the maximum calculated by NASA scientist James Hansen. Arctic ice is melting furiously as is Greenland. But there may be hope if we take the actions recommended by Al Gore.

This might have been a fine article if printed five years ago. But the Editorial Page editors seem not to know that IPCC has admitted that melting of sea ice is not accelerating, that any sea level rise this century will roughly equal that of the last century. Worse, they seem not to know that James Hansen's work, the crux of McKibben's article, has been largely discredited, and by real atmospheric scientists. Nobody quotes him anymore. Nor do the editors realize that Al Gore has jumped the shark.

Even if you believe in man-made global warming, surely you can more credible articles than this to publish.

Raise Taxes Now!

I bought copies of Minneapolis and St. Paul papers today, to see how they were starting this new year. The Star Tribune Editorial page all but took the day off, save for this typical nonsense entitled "No new taxes? It's actually not that simple" by Bill Drayton of Get America Working!, a allegedly non-partisan "full-employment" policy group.

I haven't fisked anything for a while, so what better way to kick off 2008? And in a new way, inspired by Quinn Martin: in COLOR! Color emphasis identifies false premises, non-sequiturs, irrelevant information, and B as in B, S as in S.

In 1988, GOP presidential nominee George H.W. Bush uttered the iconic sound bite, "Read my lips, no new taxes." He ate those words two years later, then endured the backlash in 1992. That should have been a clue that "no new taxes" was too simplistic to fit the actual case of our fiscal needs.

Twenty years later, it's even harder to pretend that the sound bite fits. As the primaries begin, the first crop of baby boomers (born in 1946) are beginning to qualify for early Social Security benefits. Projected Social Security and Medicare shortfalls, soaring government spending, huge deficits and recession worries all suggest that revenues will contract and budgets tighten to the point at which further tax cuts would make matters worse. On the other hand, slow or negative growth would require a stimulus package, and tax increases would have the opposite effect.

So should candidates be promising to cut taxes or raise them? The answer is, it depends -- maybe both. What they should be delivering is a more-nuanced debate on tax policy, especially regarding Social Security funding, rather than just trying to tar their opponents with the "new taxes" brush. Here's why:

Federal payroll taxes, the biggest tax that 80 percent of Americans pay, are notoriously regressive. They include those collected for unemployment, health and Social Security, and they generate about as much revenue as federal income tax, yet the rich pay very little in the way of payroll taxes -- annual income above $102,000 is exempt. Barack Obama, John Edwards and Christopher Dodd favor raising the caps on Social Security payroll tax, probably with a "doughnut hole" exempting higher middle-class incomes above $102,000 but kicking in again somewhere above $200,000.

Some call this a new tax or a tax increase, but it would only apply to the wealthy, and Obama also proposes a tax credit to decrease the payroll tax burden on lower-income families. So does billionaire Warren Buffett. Buffett recently said that his own taxes were too low and reminded the Senate Finance Committee that there are 23 million American households earning $20,000 a year or less that pay up to 15.3 percent of it in payroll taxes and need relief.

Beyond tax equity, the big reason to reduce the payroll tax burden, particularly for low-income workers, is to create jobs -- an argument for cutting payroll taxes. They artificially increase the cost of hiring and depress job growth, yet payroll tax revenues and rates have grown from 1 percent of federal revenue and a 2 percent rate in 1935 to about 40 percent of federal revenue and 15.3 percent today. Raising payroll tax caps further only deepens our dependence on those job-killing revenues. Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson oppose raising the caps.

It's true that not raising payroll taxes would avoid further depressing job growth, but it wouldn't actively stimulate it. Yet stimulating it is urgent.

Officially, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that with 4.7 percent unemployment, about 7.2 million Americans aren't working. Unofficially, the number of chronically unemployed and underemployed groups who want a job -- discouraged workers, women, minorities, seniors, people with disabilities, legal immigrants -- is at least 70 million. Imagine the loss to the economy and the tax base, and the staggering costs of the resulting government dependency and social ills, from depression to crime.

Now imagine the effect of a two-thirds cut in payroll taxes, boosting employment 13 percent in the long term. Moreover, if the lost tax revenue is made up with increased taxes on energy and natural resources (and therefore on products created from them), their costs relative to hiring people will rise, which roughly doubles the jobs created. For example, if your clock radio breaks and the cost of hiring a repairman is lower than the cost of replacing it, more repairmen would have work.

France, Germany and many other countries are cutting payroll taxes to boost employment; we can too. Ron Paul, for example, would reduce the Social Security payroll taxes that seniors pay. Mike Huckabee would eliminate payroll taxes as the funding mechanism for Social Security in favor of private savings accounts and a new sales tax. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom just proposed cutting businesses' payroll taxes to boost employment, coupled with a new commercial energy tax to provide an incentive to conserve energy and lower carbon emissions.

That particular kind of new-tax talk is apparently no longer the anathema it was in 1988. In fact, the list of those proposing some form of new taxes on consumption, pollution or energy, offset by payroll tax cuts, includes the AFL-CIO, Al Gore, T. Boone Pickens, Bill Bradley and columnists from Charles Krauthammer to Thomas Friedman. In uncertain economic times, "no new taxes" has to yield to a more nuanced message from candidates' lips: Cut truly destructive taxes, but balance them with new and better sources of revenue.

Perhaps King will weigh in also, but the underlying premise of "demand-side" economics escapes me. Worse, if passed, it could further skew the tax burdens, further targeting the real job creator - capital.

Drayton has a better way, a new workforce dedicated to keeping your clock radios working. You of course wouldn't want a better one anyway, with improved sound, HD or Wi-Fi reception, digital tuning, auto-synchronization with WWV, or maybe something that isn't avocado green.

Somehow, though, I think this just the opening shot of the 2008 Legislative agenda, water dutifully carried by the Star Tribune for decades past and no doubt going forward.