Speed Gibson

I wasn't expecting this until maybe January 2nd, but the Wold team of consultants today released its recommendation. Their 73 page report is on the District 281 web site, which I'll attempt to summarize here.

To address the over-capacity issue, they came up with 4 strategies, each with a variation. All actions would be effective for the 2009-2010 school year except as noted. For those unfamiliar with the district, the old Robbinsdale High School, now the Robbinsdale Area Learning Campus (RALC), houses both the Robbinsdale Middle School (RMS) and the Robbinsdale Spanish Immersion (RSI) K-8 program. Schools named are elementary schools except as noted.

• The Two Phases Option closes Pilgram Lane in the southwest and Lakeview (or Northport) northeast. A middle school to be determined is closed 3 years later.
  
  
• The K-6 Option closes Lakeview and Northport (or Noble), all to the east, compensating by adding an elementary to the now closed RMS space within the RALC. Grade 6 moves to the elementary level, so grades 7-8 now fit in the two remaining middle schools.
  
  
• The K-5 Option closes Pilgrim Lane and moves RSI to Sunny Hollow (or Sonnesyn), allowing RMS to expand to use the entire RALC building. Sandburg Middle School is closed and re-purposed for alternate uses.
  
  
• The K-5 Variation Option closes Pilgrim Lane and Noble (or Neill). RSI is moved to a re-purposed Sandburg Middle School, allowing RMS to expand to use the entire RALC building.
  

The consultants recommend option K-5 as highlighted. I agree with their reasoning. In fact, I'm quite impressed with this solution, far better than any that I had sketched out.

There will be perceived winners and losers when closing any school, and I'm sure we'll hear from several of them in the meetings to come. Most of all, though, we should remember just what has transpired this past year.

One year ago, the public pressed the School Board into thinking a second time about closing a school. Those second thoughts coalesced into a call for a Strategic Plan, which identified the need for a comprehensive Facility Plan. Had the Board simply "done what it said to maintain credibility" back then, we would have closed a school the experts now say should stay open, be even more geographically unbalanced, aggravated the east-west friction, still have too much capacity, and perhaps missed out on some additional benefits like adding a section to RSI.

The consultants did a fine job, but maybe the School Board deserves the most credit for giving the District the additional time and resources to get it right.

K. C. O'Dea is filling in for Langdon Perry and Chris Baker on KTLK-FM this week (5-8 am) and doing a fine job. In Monday's 7 am hour, he asked:

"When we look back at 2008, will this be the year when we can say that this man made global warming idea was put to bed?"

After noting a few examples like the snow in Seattle and early ice on Lake Superior, he listed a few climate predictions that went awry, from an article by Dennis Avery in the Canada Free Press. Excepting:

• “2008 will be the hottest year in a century." We’re now well into the earth’s third straight [year of] harsher winters.
  
  
"You could potentially sail, kayak or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer." Soon after this prediction, a huge Russian icebreaker got trapped in the thick ice of the Northwest Passage for a full week.


• “Australia’s Cities Will Run Out of Drinking Water Due to Global Warming.” Australia’s city reservoirs are amply filled.
  
  
• “Hurricane Effects Will Only Get Worse.” [The] number of Atlantic hurricanes 2006-2008 has been 22 percent below average, with insured losses more than 50 percent below average.
  
  
• “Corals will become increasingly rare on reef systems.” Veteran diver Ben Cropp said that in 50 years he’d seen no heat damage to the reef at all.
  
  
• "No More Skiing?" European ski resorts opened a month early [in 2008], after Switzerland recorded more October snow than ever before.
  

O'Dea's timing is right. It's been 10 years now since the 1976-1998 era of warming. Now we're cooling, in stark defiance of all those computer models, now "rescheduled" to resume their course in 2015.

Also since 1998 we have ever more, ever better research and evidence that the earth is doing what is always does. Throughout, there remains no evidence of significant man made influences in either direction.

All we've seen from those refusing to consider all that new evidence and debunked old evidence is etymological change, from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" to "Green."

Kids not ready for kindergarten cost Minnesota schools $113 million a year says the headline in the Minneapolis Star Tribune. It's the kids fault? It's the parents' fault for letting their young kids do what they do best during those precious years of innocence?

The idea of testing to get into Kindergarten still makes no sense to me. In fact it annoys me. Hey, teacher, leave those kids alone until they're five. They have a lifetime of learning and responsibility ahead. Let them laugh and play and develop as they should until then, without such yokes of burden.

The real headline should be: "Kindergartens not ready for kids cost Minnesota schools ..."

Patrick Reusse is top banana in KSTP-AM's "freshly re-structured morning-drive show" that begins on January 12, 2009. I like Reusse a lot, and always have. He's a master story teller and certainly knows his sports, even a little hockey. I also think he's a pretty good movie critic. But I don't see this show working for him, even if his already raspy voice holds out and truly can pull a morning shift.

Meanwhile, I saw a couple of twitters, wondering where a conservative can find a good morning show. Reusse ain't exactly conservative, you see. And then it struck me - the program I would wish for weekday mornings: The David Strom Show! It would have to be somewhat different from his more cerebral show on Saturday mornings, but I think he could make it work. He's got a good radio voice that carries and a wonderful sense of humor. And besides, he may be available if 2009 sponsorship of his weekend show doesn't happen after all.

I'd like to see him paired with rotating co-hosts or segments drawn from the NARN / MOB / MNFMI stables, like James Lileks, Craig Westover, Brian Ward, and King Banian. Maybe Chad the Elder can do sports now and then. Don't forget a producer like Margaret Martin to keep him on topic and on schedule - and kick him out of bed by 3 am to get ready.

How about on the Patriot II? Or, maybe a $5-10 a month stream/podcast?

The Wold team of consultants has made their initial presentation, concluding that up to two elementary and up to one middle school could be considered for closing at this time. The reason: over-capacity.

This was preceded by a detailed demographic analysis. It concluded that the enrollment will continue to decline from 12,000 today over the next ten years, leveling off around 11,000 students. In no scenario did demographer Hazel Reinhardt see enrollment rising, so there is no point in hanging on to an unneeded building for another baby boom or boomlet.

A business faced with such a scenario would ordinarily not hesitate to shed the excess square feet, adjusting the remaining portfolio as needed. The only reason not to would be the unfavorable reaction of a major client, but even that can normally be mitigated.

A school district is a bit different as it is a political entity, supported by everyone in the district. Everyone therefore has expectations, like continuing to have a nearby elementary school. Some, as we've seen, have great expectations carried over from decades past.

But fiscal prudence is still fiscal prudence. If the District has excess capacity, it owes the public an explanation, a reduction, or a better plan for it. The consultants estimate that our elementary schools (K-5) have excess capacity of 1,400+ students, more than any two buildings combined.

Is there a better usage, like K-6 or K-8? The District seems uninterested in either. The buildings may be too old and otherwise unsuitable for higher grades, so I won't push K-8 further. But what about K-6? There's no real educational case either way, given the large number of districts using K-6, including 281 years ago. That would close much of the elementary gap, but there's no real net gain as it simply adds to the middle school over-capacity of 784.

Is there a better usage, as in lower class sizes to use up that space? Not that we can afford, especially now. It would raise costs, not lower them. Plus, we'd have to deal with the realities of reducing average teacher quality. Finally, the verifiable return on such an investment is specious.

No, much as it pains me, the time has come to close at least one elementary school, probably two. What remains are the questions of which, when, and how. The consultants will be presenting at least two such scenarios at the next School Board meeting on January 5th.

My father was a radio engineer for many years after World War II, which may explain my personal attachment to the radio medium. I found Mitch Berg's commentary on T.D.Mischke's interview on MinnPost very interesting, especially the speculation on the future of radio.

Another source I consider reliable and informed tells me that music radio is the medium really in trouble, judging by their financials. I agree for other reasons.

Music radio is now an "on demand" service. Gone are the days of big name Disc Jockeys in their jealously guarded time slots. No one rushes home to hear Casey Kasem count off the Top 40 at the appointed hour. Now, there are even better "on demand" services based on portable players, the Internet, Wi-Fi, satellite, and other technologies.

I'd also contend that the music industry has been in a mild creative slump approaching 20 years. It's more fractured, too, thanks to those same technologies which allow us to more easily pick and choose exactly what we want to listen to. There seem to be no more stars with mass followings like Elvis Presley or The Beatles.

The MP3 revolution makes clear that we are no longer the sticklers for maximum fidelity we once were, either. I remember heated arguments about which was the best stylus or pickup or turntable motor. Now, 24k streaming audio often suffices. Tinny ear bud headphones also often suffice, when we used to worry about which was the best cross-over frequency for the tweeter and argue whether a 10 inch woofer could ever be adequate.

So where does music radio fit in to this? It still fits for some, who lack the inclination to seek out an alternative, which is fine since it's free at the price of listening to commercials. But without its classic business drivers, there just aren't enough of these people. There are too many stations chasing too few listeners, and several could fall in the advertising revenue desert of 2009.

Now is the time when many of us bloggers like to review our favorite or most covered events of the past year. I could do the same, speaking of things like the caucuses, the veto override, the late spring, my favorite movie (Mamma Mia), joining True North, and of course, the 2008 elections.

This past year has had one clear theme for me - the Robbinsdale Area Schools, District 281. This actually started a few weeks earlier, after the 2007 Referendum went down by several percentage points. This launched a spate of local protest when at least four schools were being considered for closing as a result, most likely Northport Elementary, the school my daughter attended years ago.

So I started attending Board meetings and got caught up in studying this strange world unto itself called public education. I couldn't miss an episode and later participated in some efforts like the 2008 Strategic Plan. Said involvement was in earnest, my genuine attempt to help the district by providing what the District seems to so obviously lack - contact with the outside world.

In learning more about the processes in general and the people in particular, I've had to change some of my perspectives on the problem. I think that's been evident in my postings. Chief among these is that local Boards, even Superintendents, have fewer options than I originally thought. They are heavily regulated by the State and must comply as they provide most of the money. Federal money has all those strings attached you've heard about and more. The teachers' union is easily the most political powerful and successful special interest group in Minnesota, able to thwart or mollify even the most promising of reforms.

I see my focus on the public schools continuing in 2009, starting with the Legislature. The 2009 session could be the most target-rich blogging environment to date, maybe even the most fun in terms of liberal vs liberal.

I've watched White Christmas any number of times over the years but this is the first time I picked up on this exchange between Bob Wallace (Bing Crosby) and Phil Davis (Danny Kaye). The boys are trying to figure out a way to drum up some business for the General.

Davis: We've got to stay up here and dream up some way of getting people to come into this place."

Wallace: What do you suggest?

Davis: I don't know. Should be something unusual, some kind of a novelty, that, umm..

Wallace: Well tell me, please! What would be a novelty in Vermont?

Davis: Who knows? Maybe we can dig up a Democrat.

Wallace: They'd stone him!

A lot has changed in 50 years.

I'm going to take a couple of extra days to enjoy the season around Christmas Day. I will resume blogging sometime this weekend.

A Merry Christmas to you all!

I'll be celebrating my 60th birthday early next year. I remember when KTCA first began broadcasting on channel 2 in 1957. I remember "Don Miguel" being shown on TV in my elementary school in the 60's. I've watched a lot of what's now called "TPT" programming since then. And I cannot remember anything so partisan, so boring, and so silly as their tribute to "Minnesota's Progressive Republicans" that aired last night.

It was co-produced by Growth & Justice, the new home of Dane Smith, former "dean" of the political reporters at the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Mostly, this is just some droll footage of speeches given by former Congressman and Governor Al Quie, former Governor Arne Carlson, and retired Congressman Jim Ramstad. These were given at the St. Paul College Club during the 2008 Republican National Convention. Quoting Dane Smith's opening remarks:

[Growth & Justice is] a non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to both prosperity and fairness. We disagree with those on the left and the right who think those goals can't be achieved simultaneously. Today, we really want to emphasize the positive and the possible, what's happened in the past with the suggestion that it can happen again, take a look at great progressive role models who like us both pro business and pro government.

Growth & Justice is non-partisan? Not in any meaningful sense, not even from a moderate Republican point of view. Disagree with the left? Only when the Democrats try to be moderates. Growth & Justice's solutions are all hard left, starting with large tax increases. (Real) Republicans need not apply.

What's particularly amusing is the praise heaped on Governor Carlson. Has Mr. Smith forgotten? Carlson was hated by the DFL throughout the 1990's. The papers ripped him constantly, mostly for not spending enough, with all sorts of green eyeshade jokes as I recall.

The first few minutes would have you believe that the Republicans have gone bad. Moderates are being pushed out, leaving behind only us Neanderthals who dare to ask for a tax cut, hate kids, and embrace what they call religious intolerance. The real truth, the real problem of course is that the Democrats have "progressively" stopped being moderate. Ronald Reagan used to be a Democrat. So did Dennis Prager. So did Mitch Berg. Who left whom?

No, if there's been a shift, it's been in the DFL. Democrats and Republicans, yes, used to get along much better. Government was much smaller then, so most of the issues revolving around how to best spend the money. The modern DFL seeks only largess now.

It was not the fall of "Minnesota's Progressive Republicans" that got us in yet another huge budgetary hole. It was the rise of "Minnesota's Regressive Democrats."

The snow and ice is far from over, but take heart that the Winter Solstice is tomorrow morning, December 21, at 6:04 AM CST. The days will begin getting longer, however slowly at first starting at 8 hours and 46 minutes. We won't get to 9 hours until January 9, 2009.

Actually, due to the fact that the Earth is not a perfect sphere, sunset has already been going our way since Dec 9, then 4:32 pm, 4:35 pm tomorrow afternoon. Conversely, sunrise won't reverse until Jan 2 then 7:51 am, today 7:48 am.

It takes time for the increased warmth to show up on the thermometer as we know. Even though daily solar energy is 19 percent higher in January than December, the average temperature is over 4 degrees colder.

Spring came on April 20th last year on the Speed Gibson calendar, so only about four months to go!

What a wonderful age we live in! I sit in comfortable chair in my office at home, blogging on a laptop computer while "Scrooge" plays on my desktop PC via YouTube.

The Internet has brought me back in time to the wonderful past of Old Time Radio, transcending the bulk and inconvenience of all those old 16 inch transcription disks.

And now, I watch old classics like this movie, transcending the need for the hassle of film and projectors. How crazy it might have seemed even a few years ago that such analog treasures could be recast as bits and sent around the world for reassembly at places and times we choose, on equipment worth less than $100, via an Internet connection well under $100 a month.

Getting back to that grasping old sinner Mr. Scrooge, this 1951 British version is my favorite. Only George C. Scott's 1984 portrayal comes close, but the supporting cast is so much stronger in the older version.

Next week, I'll be listening to Lionel Barrymore's radio portrayal in bed, on a cheap MP3 player. To borrow a phrase, it's a wonderful life.

UPDATE: Channel 17, not channel 2!

"Minnesota’s Progressive Republicans" debuts this Saturday at 8 pm on (where else?) Channel 17, co-produced with (who else?) Growth & Justice. Apparently this will be a testimonial to the "flexible moderates" in the Republican Party, each to the extent they voted with the DFL to expand government at all levels. Among those featured will be Al Quie, Arne Carlson, and Jim Ramstad.

A Fairness Doctrine would require that public television similarly partner with an openly conservative group like the Minnesota Free Market Institute to produce a "Minnesota's Regressive Democrats" series to chronicle the likes of Wendell Anderson, Myron Orfield, Phyllis Kahn, and Roger Moe.

It doesn't seem that long ago that my AM radio dials were mostly set to 1500, "The Talk Station" - KSTP. Until they acquired the Minnesota Twins network, I hardly ever listened. To tell you how out of touch I am with KSTP, I was surprised to read that Tommy Mischke was canned two weeks ago.

Mitch's reports were true, as confirmed by the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Willie Clark is no more. The station's web site now says "TBD" from 5:30 am to 9:00 am.

"TBD" will be a "freshly re-structured morning-drive show" that will include current cast members like Jay Kolls, added when Willie's early ratings were as deserved. I assume as is past practice that new talent and that new show are ready to roll, perhaps debuting after the holidays, though. In other words, it's too late to give them any advice. No doubt we're going to get about the same consultant-approved formula, larded with endless weather and traffic breaks.

But I'm curious, my readers. Who is or was the best morning drive talker in the Twin Cities? Maynard Speece and Roger Erickson? Howard Viken with Joyce Lamont? Barbara Carlson? Bob Yates? Jesse Ventura? Wendy Wilde? Chris Baker? Andrew Coulton and Kelly Guest? MPR? Mitch Berg?

And who would you hire now?

I attended the second session of the "presentation by the Wold team on the excess capacity issue, to ask questions and provide input before the team begins to develop alternatives to solve the capacity issue." I expected a larger turnout for several reasons, but it was about the same as Tuesday's session in Plymouth, well under 100.

As with Plymouth, there was next to no protest or outrage. The only regrettable comment was from a member of the Robbinsdale City Council, who made a rather direct point that his city would not embrace the next referendum like this last one if he isn't happy with the outcome of this process.

A couple of questions helped describe the current geographical imbalance, that the northeast section has more students but the southwest section has more buildings.

I myself followed up on an idea floated at an earlier meeting this year, that the Spanish Immersion program be expanded to two buildings. It currently has a waiting list, resolved by a lottery today. Opening a second campus in the west would provide more capacity and greater access. I wanted to know if that would be an option the consultants would be considering in their proposed solutions. No, said Superintendent Mack, as it would add costs. During the Strategic Planning process however, Assistant Superintendent Wolkowiak said it was essentially free because the number of teachers is the same, just are bilingual.

That's it for 2008. The next meeting is a regularly scheduled School Board meeting on January 5, 2009, where we'll see the "scenarios" that the consultant recommends as appropriate solutions to the over-capacity issue. Once specific schools are named, public interest and attendance will no doubt increase for the public meeting January 13th, 2009 at Cooper High School.

Tonight was the first of two informational presentations on what the demographic and facilities consultants hired by District 281 have found. As they said, this is 2/3 of the deliverables, the last third being the actual recommendations. There will likely be two or three scenarios, certainly not the nine we saw a year ago.

It remains very clear to me that at least one school will be closed at the end of this term. The leading candidate certainly remains Northport Elementary, given its design, age, condition, location, and lack of political friends. Nothing new here.

What did seem a bit surprising even to me was the outright downplay of the value of neighborhood schools. Where the classroom is does not matter according to Superintendent Mack. "Strong programs" are preferred by School Board Chair Patsy Green. But it's premature to observe much more at this point.

Turnout was well short of 100 at the Plymouth Middle School. Perhaps it was the weather. Perhaps it's just too early. Perhaps we didn't get the word out in time, the Star Tribune piece running today, too late for those who made plans. Perhaps those nearby do not expect one of their schools to be closed, not even Pilgrim Lane Elementary.

The second session (same program) will be this Thursday, 7 pm, at the old Robbinsdale High School auditorium.

What a coup Richfield scored in luring Best Buy to relocate there. Property taxes dropped significantly for the community, right? Wrong, I bet, especially after having to pay a hefty litigation bill fighting the displaced Walser interests. It could have been much worse, winning the final battle by just 1 vote in the Minnesota Supreme Court.

Soon after the move, you may remember, Best Buy outsourced its Information Technology department, over 700 jobs. Now, Best Buy is downsizing again, offering buyouts to practically everyone in that now seemingly overbuilt complex.

Let's all take a lesson from this. If Best Buy can't make a deal like this work, nobody can. No city should offer tax breaks and abuse Eminent Domain like Richfield so clearly did here just to get "better" taxpayers.

I've been making the TV rounds of my favorite Christmas movies, and I might have to add another even if only tangentially set around the Holidays. It's "Bundle of Joy" with Debbie Reynolds and Eddie Fischer, then young marrieds, soon to be parents of Carrie Fisher.

It's a wonderful time trip back to the golden age of Department Store Retail, the improbable romance of the owner's son with a lowly clerk in Millinery. It's a musical, but not overly so, and sung by real singers. Eddie Fisher is a personal favorite of mine, perhaps the most mechanically perfect male singer of his era. He only lacked the stylings that made Sinatra and Bennett great.

It's a case of mistaken identity, Debbie Reynolds assumed to be the mother of an abandoned 1 year old baby. The baby of course runs the show and controls everyone in it - and now, me.

The Wall Street Journal has a new perspective on what they titled The 'Certified' Teacher Myth.

Harvard researchers Paul Peterson and Daniel Nadler compared states that have genuine alternative certification with those that have it in name only. And they found that between 2003 and 2007 students in states with a real alternative pathway to teaching gained more on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (a federal standardized test) than did students in other states.

In other words, teachers in "closed shop" states don't perform as well as those in "union shop" states that embrace alternative certification. As the article notes, these results held across all demographic groups. The standard union certification curriculum is not the predictor of success claimed.

Teachers learn by teaching, not by mastering the required "education" courses associated with state certification.

As Spectre #3 Rosa Kleb observed, "Training is useful but there is no substitute for experience."

Alternative certification simply opens up the field a little. College degrees are still required. Teachers are just as free to unionize. This is especially important to us in diverse districts.

[There ] is broad agreement that minority students tend to benefit from having a minority instructor, who can also serve as a role model. And it turns out that black and Hispanic college graduates are much more likely to take advantage of alternative paths to certification.

More teachers. Better teachers. Better results. What's not to like?

What's the next big thing or things that will power us out of the recession? There has to be some new growth sector to get lenders lending, businesses building, and consumers buying.

In the 80's, it was CD's, PC's, cellular phones, cable TV, video games, the music, the movies, and the malls. It was a great recovery, and it was fun!. We've had some fun since then, like mini-vans in the 80's, SUV's in the 90's, and Internet magic like blogs, Blackberry's and YouTube in this new century.

Now what? Green jobs! So says President-elect Obama and Prime Minister Pawlenty. A windmill here, a green roof there, electric cars, plus another round of light rail and ethanol. What's in it for us?

Unless a NASCAR owner like Rick Hendrick is appointed the coming new Federal Car Czar, we will be see showrooms full of unsold electric econo-boxes. You might be able to drive them home on one charge, as long as you don't turn on the air conditioning or use the stereo.

Food and drink will be dumbed down in the name of expunging animal fats and salt. You'll need a note from your doctor saying you're healthy enough to buy mayonnaise. No after dinners cigars. No more rare steaks, either. Nothing fun here.

The central planners will tax and regulate us out of our happy homes. A lakeshore property owner up north told me the DNR is telling the lake's 300 property owners that limits on docks and boats will soon be imposed. The DNR also reminded them that the "public" owns the shoreline, that anyone could wade ashore and picnic on what they thought was their property. Here in the city, watering restrictions will morph into overall water usage limits. Then there will be more mandatory recycling and trash limits to make you reuse your grocery bags.

Education options will continue to contract for most of us who have to support the public institutions that cannot seem to control there costs. Entertainment seems to be trending down in quality.

So I'm wondering where the fun is going to be? Green jobs are basically public or heavily subsidized make work, by definition not going to grow the economy.

I submit that there is no growth without fun, and bigger government is not fun.

Don't the Regents of the University of Minnesota read the papers? Don't they know that we're $5 billion in the hole for the next biennium? Apparently not. They have unanimously voted to request $74.5 million more from the Legislature, for "critical" repairs and renovations, plus a new Bell Museum of Natural History. Leaving aside how renovations can be critical, the new museum will cost $39.5 million. And, it will be built in the St. Paul Campus, the new official public entry point in fact.

For those unfamiliar, the Bell Museum is currently part of the Minneapolis Campus. Reading their brochure on the proposal, it currently "reaches a half a million Minnesotans each year." Sounds impressive to me, but apparently that's not enough. The new facility "will allow the museum to triple its attendance figures by attracting more visitors [... than ...] the Minneapolis campus can accommodate."

This should die a quick death in committee. Perhaps its just a throwaway bargaining chip for the full budget negotiations, only I don't think so. The brochure says that private donations will pay part, and University President Bruininks says the project is "construction ready."

Not only should this proposal be scuttled, so should the entire St. Paul Campus as I wrote in September. The University no longer needs it, if it ever did. The land and buildings should be sold. The proceeds could be used to refurbish the existing Bell Museum if need be. Don't forget that moving the Bell Museum to St. Paul will leave behind a vacant building that the U will then seek to replace.

It's time that the Legislature force the University rethink its mission, especially now. It has to stop trying to be all things to all students, especially where its programs needlessly overlap with other state college (MnSCU) programs.

Speed Gibson has joined Twitter. I heard David Strom and Margaret Martin talking about it this morning, and of course, Hugh Hewitt.

It looks like information overload is a possibility, especially given that I am "following" some news sites.

If I like what I see, I think I'll explore and promote usage by my local government units of interest - the city, Channel 12, and the School Districts.

I chanced to hear Michael Steele filling in for Bill Bennett this morning on The Patriot (1280 AM). It was so inspiring, I stimulated the economy by signing up for Bennett's premium site to get the podcast including today's show.

I don't consider Bennett a great host or his show a great show, but he is one of radio's best interviewers. So, I think I'll try it a month or two.

But getting back to Steele, I was really impressed. The entire 3 hours were a great lift against all the bad news of late.

Steele, the former Lieutenant Governor of Maryland and current chair of GOPAC, is currently seeking the Republican National Committee chair. More importantly to me, he exudes confidence borne of a clear grasp of the issues and the current political realities. He is polite and polished, but playfully injects a little street dialect from time to time to keep it real.

Rumors of the death of the GOP may be premature, not to mention Governors Jindal, Palin, and yes, Pawlenty.

There has been a spirited conversation or two in the comments about class sizes recently. Public school districts are continually obsessed with reducing class sizes.

"In budget projections and planning for next year we knew we would have to find a minimum of $800,000 that would be cut from our facilities budget," said [District 281] Superintendent Stan F. Mack II. "This cut, coupled with increased revenue from the property tax levy, allows us to dedicate funds to the priorities of the community, including lower class sizes and partially restored after-school activities."

I have spent considerable time trying to find compelling research to justify this obsession, but even with the help of a couple of loyal readers, I cannot.

It seems to be like Smoking Ban. It's intuitive that second hand smoke should be harmful, only there are no significant studies predicting such consequences. Even the Minnesota Lung Association comes empty handed to the discussion.

Maybe Light Rail is a better analogy. Again, it seems intuitive but benefits are limited and not justified by its high costs. Reducing class sizes can be expensive, too, and some argue that the return on that investment just isn't there compared to other alternatives.

Intuition is not enough. Remember State Senator Dick Day's six week freeway ramp meter moratorium? I, too, expected a mess, only the opposite happened. However counter-intuitive, the only explanation was that the meters were themselves generating congestion, a problem, not a solution. This is the courage we need again, to try different class sizes in different settings and see if any trends emerge.

Now I'm not talking about an overcrowded classroom, 35 students in a room built for 30. I'm questioning whether 26 is significantly better than 28, enough to justify closing a neighborhood school to pay for it.

Until then, let's not again quietly accept unproven dogma as the basis for changes that clearly will affect the District.

We stumbled on "The Lost Twin Cities II" on channel 2, aired as part of yet another fund-raiser. Narrated by Dave Moore, it's like Road House. You have to watch the rise and fall of the Prom on the Midway, and the Marigold Ballroom. My wife had never seen Axel and his Dog before. "What's that in the road - ahead?" "What would you do if your wife ate your pancake - batter?"

During the intermission, Paul Douglas pitched the memberships, touting a hand crank weatherband radio premium for a certain pledge level. And then he mentions that this is particularly appropriate during this, the peak of the tornado season. It wasn't live, it was Memorex!

Of course, with an inch of snow in New Orleans today, I wouldn't rule out a freak tornado up here in December. But regardless, I think that's pretty cheeky, pretending to be live while pretending to be poor.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune has carried a couple of telling commentaries recently. Dane Smith of Growth & Justice claims undertaxing has weakened our local economy. Phil Krinke of the Taxpayer's League claims that overtaxation is the reality.

According to Dane Smith:

During our decade-long experiment with disinvestment in the public square …

Before we … proceed to slash the commonwealth further …

… local and state governments already have been significantly downsized …

… as their share of the pie has grown disproportionately, [top-earning Minnesotans] can afford to pay modestly more.

Minnesota, in its new status as an average-tax state …

… we shrunk our public sector.

… the signs of a shabbier community and public disinvestment are proliferating.

We reached that lower standard in part through large and permanent income-tax cuts in the late 1990s …

Taxes are lower than they have been for decades ...

…. the unfairness … is substantial and widening.

… those at the top have an unprecedented share of income and wealth, more than since the Great Depression.

…. gains were being made by families at the middle and lower reaches of the income ladder … during all those years when Minnesota stood out as a high-tax state.

… the state's economy has become more of a "jalopy" than the shiny new car we once boasted about.

… on indicators from income growth to unemployment, we have become more like other states in their lackluster economic performance.

I will immediately confess that these snippets are a bit out of context, but do fairly represent the overall tone and theme of his article. It's a belt high hanging curve ball and Phil Krinkie gets all of it.

Smith's call for another tax increase continues the cycle of government expansion in good economic times, tax increases to support that expansion in bad economic times and then even higher taxes due to bracket creep when happy days are here again.

This was the point I so awkwardly tried to make earlier this week: spend, tax, repeat.

Mr. Krinkie sets the numbers straight, and then exposes the false premise beneath Smith's entire argument:

The fact is, the price of government [POG] as a percentage of income is economically irrelevant. Validity of a POG index assumes that government is entitled to some arbitrary percentage of private production. You work hard, earn more, and government is entitled to more of your income.

In Smith's world, when you ask the butcher how much for that New York strip steak, he's entitled to ask "how much have you got?"

Read both articles. I think you'll find that not only does Krinkie have a better command of the facts, he also was the better writer this round.

Just remember that only at the government service counter do you hear, "What's In Your Wallet?" You're going to hear that even more come January 6th.

I see that my city of residence the past 18 years made one of the final pre-bankruptcy editions of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Brooklyn Center is now about half white, half minority. The authors seem to think this is a problem, the reason why our average income is about 60 percent of the metro average.

Sure, our neighborhood has changed, to about these ratios. We gained our first Hmong family a couple of years ago, and a Mexican family a couple of years before that. Our local schools are a true rainbow coalition, a great advantage we think in preparing our children for the real world out there.

I grew up in St. Louis Park, which is also much less white than 30 years ago, and also showing its age. Since then, I've lived several years each in Burnsville, Bloomington, and Robbinsdale before coming here in 1990. None of them engendered the feeling of "home" I enjoy here in Brooklyn Center.

The city is very well run in my opinion. I've served many years on various volunteer advisory commissions, of late the Financial Commission. No matter what Jason Lewis says about local government in general, our budgets are tight and properly focused. We don't try to live in some trendy vision of the future like St. Louis Park does, getting scammed into buying solar powered Wi-Fi. We don't try to live in the past, like Robbinsdale.

We border Minneapolis, which is both a blessing and a curse I suppose. We're close to most everything, which matters a lot when gas is $4 a gallon. We have great bus service and the mailman delivers right to the door. And so far for us at least, no crime trouble at all.

We have four school districts, also a blessing and a curse. Open Enrollment is therefore quite viable even when you have to provide your own transportation. We have parks and trails and a very suitable Community Center.

To each his own. Me, I love that there is comparatively so little pretense and preening here. Everyone's real. Can you imagine? We go to to Caribou to get coffee, not impress other customers with our knowledge of the subject.

It's my kind of town.

Mega-Honker II, the forecasted $5 billion State budget deficit, should force some obvious decisions.

One should be an immediate hold on passenger rail projects, all of them, including the Central Corridor, Northstar Commuter, and the train to nowhere (Duluth). If you (a Legislator) can't put these all on hold for two years, you just aren't serious about solving this problem.

If you (a Legislator) vote for even a dollar more of spending on our bloated higher education system (the U, MnScu), you just aren't serious, either.

Sounds like a Jeff Foxworthy bit, like "if your front porch collapses and kills more than three dogs, you might be a redneck!" What's the political equivalent of redneck here?

The Robbinsdale Area Schools is again looking at closing school buildings, as it should even though the Referendums both passed. Enrollment is continuing to decline, perhaps to as low as 11,000 ten years out. Current enrollment is about 12,300. Peak enrollment was about 28,100 in 1971.

These numbers come from a (preliminary) contracted study, presented at an all day School Board Work Session this past Saturday. Actually, most of this time was spent reviewing the (preliminary) findings of a corresponding contracted study of the district's buildings. There are always those who gripe at such expenditures, but I'm all for these studies. They weren't expensive and have provided a solid basis - facts - for the discussions to come.

These findings will be presented to the public at two scheduled meetings next week, Tuesday west and Thursday east.

The battle shaping up is again: neighborhood schools vs. lower class sizes. We now know quite a bit more about the former, both operationally and financially. Unfortunately, we know relatively little about the latter. It's not a level debating field.

Instead, we have little more than supposition that the benefits of lower class sizes are significant. Are they? Which is the better investment of the $800,000 involved: keeping a neighborhood school open or slightly lowering the class sizes in the remaining schools?

To date, District 281 considers the the case closed, that the benefits of smaller class sizes are obvious and axiomatic. Apparently they have to be, because there sure doesn't seem to be much actual evidence, you now, like a contracted study.

Maybe I'm just a poor web surfer. Maybe I keep buying the wrong books and reading the wrong blogs. Maybe I should listen to MPR more. So if anyone can show me the evidence I've somehow missed, that there are indeed credible, applicable studies in support of smaller class sizes, I'll be happy to admit I am wrong. Part of my re-education should include an explanation of why it didn't help the Kansas City Schools or why the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation also seems unconvinced.

Before the District makes any further decisions, I'd like to see them spend a little more on a study quantifying the benefits of closing still more schools to lower class sizes.

Looking at our latest State budget deficit numbers and the current economy, I have this prediction, possibly just another iteration of what's happened several times before.

When times are good, like the Y2K / dot com bubble, State spending rises significantly. Yes, there were the Jesse rebates, much appreciated, but most of that windfall was spent. Then comes 9/11 on the tail of the bursting bubble, and soon we have the Mega-Honking Deficit I. Spending growth all but stops, but that burden is redistributed to those with jobs or otherwise doing OK.

Then there is recovery, State spending resumes its well over inflation growth, fueled by the new taxes from falling unemployment. That is, the new income does not now bring down the burden from those who shouldered it during the recession.

Now comes another recession, a real recession this time, and now we have Mega-Honking Deficit II. More tax increases on fewer taxpayers are all but certain. If we're 14% overdrawn and 40% is K-12 that will politically have to be held flat and at least another 10% is truly essential, that means the remaining 50% will have to be cut 28%. I can't see that happening.

The ensuing recovery, unlikely to arrive before the start of the next State Fiscal Year on July 1, will put more of us back to work and the stores, and revenues will again go up and the whole cycle repeats.

The mathematics to me indicate that the State government will swallow the entire State economy well before the end of this century. At some point, this has to stop.

A good place to start is to better insure our most productive citizens from further cyclical abuse like I described. It might take the form of a Constitutional limit on spending, but history suggests that there are many creative ways to circumvent that it seems.

Isn't there some way to set an individual limit, say 10 percent of your total income going to State and local taxes? If you can present tax receipts totaling more than 10 percent of your income, you get the excess refunded. Further, you should get credit for the indirect taxation, like corporate taxes that we pay via higher prices, lower wages, and lower investment returns. Or, maybe there is a limit on how much one's tax load can go up year to year.

I know the devil would be in these details as well, but given that "group politics" isn't working, I think we need an individual answer, a taxpayer answer.

Stay out of the Dog House this year!

I heard KTLK's Langdon Perry talking about this in his morning show. An enlightened school district has decided that students just cannot handle the stigma of flunking. Out with the "F" for Fail and in with the "H" for Held. Quoting the Grand Rapids (Michigan) Press:

No Grand Rapids high school students will find failing grades on their report cards when they arrive this week.

Instead, students who performed poorly will see an "H" for "held" and an opportunity to make up the work and earn a passing grade by the end of the next trimester.

Teachers union leaders argue the change is another late-marking period scramble to boost sagging scores and undermines their ability to get students to show up and work hard all trimester.

Superintendent Bernard Taylor said the plan gives students a second chance to overcome problems and be successful.

"We are not watering down standards or lowering standards," Taylor said. "We're giving people the opportunity to meet standards when they go astray."

Taylor said the move is part of the district's evolving "Success Only Option" that calls for offering students multiple opportunities and methods to demonstrate they know class material.

In a nation of 15,000 school districts we're always going to see a few stories like this. But this one is more than anecdotal as it illustrates a point I made last Friday: do traditional Superintendent searches really work?

Grand Rapids made all the right moves. They hired a consultant in 2005, held public meetings, conducted interviews and narrowed the field to two finalists. The Board even traveled to finalists' current districts. Dr. Taylor was the unanimous choice of the Board, hired effective July 2006. Mind you, this is a nine member School Board, including a college professor and a minister.

All that time, all those meetings, all those interviews, all that evaluation, all that effort, all that expense, and they still got it wrong.

Lou Gestner Jr came over from a tobacco company to rescue IBM not quite twenty years ago. The once invincible diadem of American industry needed such an outsider when its bureaucracy and heretofore internal succession had posted its first loss in decades. Of late he has been dabbling in education reform, writing a piece in the Wall Street Journal recently.

I didn't find it very compelling overall, especially the parts about nationalizing K-12 by all but eliminating local districts. Personally, I think the article's best contribution to the debate is rather casually included in his four point agenda for change.

This is a complex problem, but countless experiments and analyses have clearly indicated we need to do four straightforward things to bring fundamental changes to K-12 education:

1. Set high academic standards for all of our kids, supported by a rigorous curriculum.
2. Greatly improve the quality of teaching in our classrooms, supported by substantially higher compensation for our best teachers.
3. Measure student and teacher performance on a systematic basis, supported by tests and assessments.
4. Increase "time on task" for all students; this means more time in school each day, and a longer school year.

Everything else either does not matter (e.g., smaller class sizes) or is supportive of these four steps (e.g., vastly improve schools of education).

Did you see it? Smaller class sizes do not matter.

Clearly there is a limit to how efficient, let alone effective a large class can be, even with adequate space and creative technology. Less clear I think is that classes can also be too small for both teachers and students, for reasons I'll save for another time. But within that range, say 15 to 35 students, does class size truly matter?

Certainly, obviously, say the districts. It's part of every operating levy referendum, the concern for overly large classes and the relief the referendum will bring.

Critics like Jay Greene contend that there's just no significant evidence to support the large additional expense of smaller classes. Plus, he argues, going significantly deeper into the labor pool means hiring less capable teachers.

More than once I have surfed the web looking for such evidence on class sizes. If there is compelling evidence out there, I couldn't find it. There's a little, but I think it's pretty thin soup on which to manage a school district. I also note the finding of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation that smaller schools should be the goal.

Large districts with declining enrollment are increasingly having to ask which to value more: neighborhood schools or smaller classes. So far, the latter seems to be winning every time while school after school is closed.

This should be a good campaign issue for those running for School Board, maybe the most important of all.

As the White House again fills with Clintonistas, we're going to see another vestige of the Clinton Administration fairly soon - the payoff to the big city mayors.

Remember the Emergency Stimulus Bill of 1993? When we found that we were already coming out of a mild recession aka the "worst economy in the last fifty years" the bill stalled. Soon, President Clinton was back, again bearing gifts to the major cities as part of his Crime Bill. Remember those 100,000 new cops?

We'll see the same in 2009, though this time we'll also see state governments and public pension funds making a play.

A fellow 281 traveler was up North over Thanksgiving and saw a documentary worth watching: MN Public Education: At the Croaaroads by independent producer Ray Gildow. I wrote him and he readily agreed there is more to tell. I've watched it twice and I don't believe I heard the word "union" mentioned once. There were some suspect premises here and there, but it was still a good production given the limited time and resources Mr. Gildow had available.

One person, a "futurist" I believe, said that the schools will ultimately have to shed programs like sports. He also sees the school day lengthening to something like 9 am to 5 pm, which means no homework. Sports and other activities are done in the evenings, after dinner. It's an intriguing thought.

Those of us who have raising student athletes know how tired they can be when they get home, at a serious disadvantage in tackling homework. Here, the homework gets done, they get refueled, and practice. That also precludes television, video games, and internet equivalents. It's a long day, but really no longer if you count homework. And, they get to sleep in a bit, starting school around 9 am, not 7:30 am or so.

This seems particularly appealing here in Brooklyn Center, land of 4 districts, three of which also share Brooklyn Park. Maybe we should form the BCAA - the Brooklyn Center Athletic Association or even join up with Brooklyn Park to create the BAA, to be able to offer more options. It give us more identity than we currently have, and allow the students to meet students from the other districts. The same concept would work for class plays, too.

This was just an idea, but in these days where some districts are changing $200 participation fees and more, maybe it's already happening like the futurist said.