Speed Gibson

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Sunday, May 31, 2009

Why the Deception?

Last week on Tom Hauser's "At Issue" on KSTP-TV, Governor Pawlenty singled out the City of Wadena for complaining about LGA cuts while sitting on $1 million in "rainy day" funds. This week, Mayor Wayne Wolden was on "At Issue" to present his side. He also President of the Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities, which probably explains why Pawlenty chose Wadena to make his point. Wolden made a good point that Pawlenty was mischaracterizing their cash flow account, which buffers the uneven arrival of revenue with the more steady departure of expenditures. All cities have them, usually enough to fund several months of operations.

But after that, the weaseling began, the Mayor claiming that Wadena was really going to be up against it without their full share of LGA money. Supposedly they had talked of police layoffs in the past, and plowing every other blizzard now. So, off to Google and the Wadena web site I went, bringing up their 2007 Financial Report, the latest available. As one involved in my own city's budgeting, the 2008 situation did not change much, nor did the Wadena Mayor contend that it did.

First thing I see is that the City is running a number of businesses on the side: municipal liquor, a golf course, and electricity service, plus the usual water and sewer operations. All told, this generated $1.1 million, which with a small surplus in government operations gave the city a total surplus of $1.3 million. Sounds like rainy day money to me. Local Government Aid (LGA) was $1.3 million. Property taxes were just short of $1.0 million. The population is just under 4,000, declining about 1 percent per year since 2000.

On the expense side, total public safety was $806 thousand and public works $727 thousand. That and general government total about $1.6 million, a very manageable number with this revenue stream. It has to be if they have another million for culture, recreation, and economic development.

Further, Wadena's involvement in so many non-governmental operations makes any such claims moot. The funds are so co-mingled as to preclude any cause and effect analysis. Does LGA truly fund government operations? Or subsidize electric utility rates?

The Mayor's articulate predictions of painful austerity because of proposed 2009 LGA cuts vanish upon reading this one page of very public information. Why the deception?

Friday, May 29, 2009

The Magnificent Contradiction

Many years ago I had a brief flirtation with the Libertarian Party. It was different. It had answers, and some deep thought underneath those answers, thinking I still very much respect and embrace today. But there was one obvious problem. Our natural, well-founded distrust of government left us with no taste for politics. We saw it as a negative, keeping worse people than ourselves out of power. We had no real positive goals beyond the virtuous platitudes. We didn't want to build a Light Rail line, like the supposedly independent, freedom loving Jesse Ventura.

Judging by various accounts including last night's debates, I think this is fair to say of the Republican Party as well. We act to fight off Democrats and their destructive policies, not build unneeded highways, arenas, and museums. We are hesitant to ask for donations, not being able to offer such baubles. We rebel at the idea of paying off unions for support. We look at it as part time, something to do after work. The Democrats look at politics as a career.

During the debates last night, the question of whether they should or would draw a salary came up. Some said yes, some said no. (A big thank you to Matt Abe at Northstar Liberty for this coverage.) There were a couple of interesting responses.

Deputy Chair candidate Fleming said she would because salary equals accountability. I agree. Chair candidate Ruud said that not paying a salary limits the field. I agree with that, too. In fact, it's a critical first step in creating real careers in Republican politics. And why not? Keeping the liberals at bay is a noble, worthwhile profession. The DFL majority in the 2008-09 Minnesota Legislature and President Obama illustrate this like never before.

The Chair is a key position. Rather than agonize or muse over what the duties should be, pay enough to get someone who knows what to do. We're capitalists. That's our advantage, and a big one. Let's use it. Let's act like shareholders, buy some stock, elect a Board, and hire the best damn CEO we can afford. At $10 a share, even a couple hundred thousand owners could afford to get the best. Turning this around, a star at the helm would inspire membership in a competent organization, one we can be proud of once again.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Governor Pawlenty

This isn't for True North, this is just me talking about the Honorable Tim Pawlenty, Governor of the State of Minnesota.

That's right, I said Governor Pawlenty. I borrowed Eric Escola's "Prime Minister" characterization four years ago when Pawlenty was surprisingly outmaneuvered by the DFL, capped by his infamous "Health Impact Fee" tax ruse.

I think we can say, indeed he said it himself just this month that he learned his lesson, that he got absolutely nothing for those pointless concessions to the DFL. His record since then reflects this sadder but wiser realization. His performance this year was exemplary in fact, to the point where I will retire my Prime Minister chiding, granting him my field promotion to Governor of the great State of Minnesota.

In this, the most reckless and irresponsible biennium in DFL history, Governor Pawlenty stood tall, stood firm, and stood for all of Minnesota. Well done, sir.

The Long Hot(?) Summer

By my reckoning, today, May 26th is the first day of Summer on my calendar, almost three weeks earlier than last year's June 13th.

Plus, with Memorial Day at its earliest and Labor Day at its latest, we get an extra week of summer activities as well.

Where No Child Has Gone Before

My wife and I finally saw "Star Trek" last night, at the urgings of all but one who had seen it. It was amusing, and I always enjoy going to the Heights Theater, but in a word, this movie was juvenile. I thought I was watching Nickelodeon. Only many good performances from the cast of unknowns kept it at all interesting. It was like "The Way to Eden" in reverse.

This is a common complaint I have with far too many movies and television programs. The heroes, villains, and "authority figures" are simply too young by ten years or more, with too much insipid dialog to match.

And can we now retire the "Ambassador Spock" role? Like, he's so over, dude.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

A Hypothetical Question for the DFL

Roughly speaking, we had a $6 billion budget shortfall this biennium, a third of which will presumably be covered by the "stimulus" funds. The DFL budget bills cut this by another $1 billion, $3 billion to go. Unable to resolve a House - Senate divide on a tax bill raising up to $2 billion, the DFL leadership threw together a stop gap $1 billion tax increase, leaving $2 billion presumably "saved" by accounting shifts.

The Governor vetoed the tax increase, and is now using his line item veto and unallotment powers to close the gap. Since he wasn't getting any usable advice from the DFL Legislature, he is welcoming input from everyone, as he should.

The DFL leadership, such as it is, now on the outside looking in, their noses pressed against the glass, is saying that we just don't understand. When the sky begins falling on July 1, we'll be sorry we listened to Mr. Pawlenty, who isn't a nice person according to their editorial submission to the Minneapolis Star Tribune:
"Seeking input from citizens now is at best a half-hearted attempt to inform the public of the decisions he has already made, or at worst, is an effort to make Minnesotans complicit in his irresponsible actions." -- House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller
I have a hypothetical question. If the DFL could live with just $1 billion in new tax revenue, would would have happened if revenues were $32 billion instead of $31 billion? Would the DFL still have sought a tax increase?

You bet your posterior they would, maybe even a larger one judging by their attempt to raise taxes by $5 billion when we had a surplus.

No, the DFL's tax increase wasn't there strike a "fair" "balance" in closing the gap. Truth be told, they didn't even like their smaller $1 billion package, carefully controlling the flow to avoid committee hearings and floor debate. The goal, all session long, was to get at Pawlenty. How about I put it this way:
"Seeking more taxes from us was at best a half-hearted attempt to placate the usual DFL suspects, or at worst, an effort to make the Governor complicit in their irresponsible legislation."

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Layoffs By the Numbers

All spring, Mayors Ryback and Coleman have been warning us that cuts to Local Government Aid (AID) would result in police layoffs in their respective cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Rybak's version says the Federal stimulus saved 57 positions that otherwise would have happened. Cutting the fire department is similar posed as a false choice. Look at the Minneapolis 2008 budget numbers below, in millions of dollars. (2009 is currently unavailable online.)

Total Gen Fund

Total $ 1,378 $ 361
Prop Taxes 327 152
LGA 119 82
Police 130* 121
Fire 51* 50

    * Reflects federal grants etc I found scanning these long documents. It's possible I missed a couple more.


Police and Fire are clearly not what's breaking the bank.

Eva Ng, who's running for Mayor in St. Paul, who I saw speak at the Jason Lewis Tax Rally this year was on with Mitch Berg on the NARN radio broadcast today. She made a good point, that your most important responsibilities should be the first ones funded. As you can see, the General Fund portion of the property tax all but covers the total cost of Police and Fire. Add the $ 26 million in licensing fees and we're done.

I'm pretty sure the numbers in St. Paul are comparable. To claim LGA cuts will require public safety cuts and/or tax increases to avoid them is a lie.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

My Dinner With Stanley

I was deep behind enemy lines tonight, attending the farewell reception for retiring District 281 Superintendent Stan F. Mack II. I'd guess a little over 100 people were present, at the Golden Valley Country Club. Despite being badly outnumbered by the public sector, I had a good time.

More than that, I was glad to be a part of it. Whatever we might think of Mack and his nine year record, no one can doubt his drive, sincerity, and hard work on behalf of the Robbinsdale Area Schools.

Ship of Fools

It's the smallest of problems, yet among the most troubling. The St. Paul School Board has voted 5-1 to rename its Webster Magnet Elementary school to Barack and Michelle Obama Service Learning Elementary.

President Barack Obama hasn't been in office six months. Much can happen. His Cabinet appointments have been strikingly unimpressive. Much is on his plate, much of that from his own quest for power. His upsides are small and unlikely. His downsides are steep, some of which we're seeing now. General Motors and Chrysler may not survive 2009, for example. He's taken such a heavy hand here that even the much smaller UAW will have to rethink its politics.

And who, pray tell, is Michelle Obama? What has she done? She's classy, smart, sophisticated, everything we like in a First Lady. But what else? Like her husband, she has no local roots or accomplishments here. And while she may indeed do many good things as First Lady, she has none to date, nor could we expect any in her relatively short time in the White House.

All of this could come tumbling down, a la Jimmy Carter. What then? Wellstone is already taken. Franken? Pogemiller? Or would they just close it?

The issue here, though, is the St. Paul School Board's total, even reckless lack of judgment here. If I had children in this system, I would be looking up alternatives this morning. If this Board can't reason at this low level, they cannot be trusted to handle any large scale decisions.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Who's the Man with the Cat?

Watching one of my favorite movies scenes, the mysterious SPECTRE Number One calls two of his directors on the carpet. In From Russia, With Love, SPECTRE tricks Bond into stealing a prized Lektor decoder from the Russians. But of course, it is Bond who kills their agent/assassin and is headed for NATO territory with the machine. I suddenly pictured the DFL Legislative Leaders in the scene and went from there.

Now that I think of it, how can incompetents like Senate Majority Leader Pogemiller and House Speaker Kelliher truly be in charge of a powerful syndicate like the DFL? There must be a man with a cat somewhere they report to. (Or a woman, but humor my fantasy this occassion.)
"Two vetoes were upheld this weekend. One of them was our tax increase. What have you to say, Number Five?"

"That was in the House. Her people failed."

"It was your plan! We followed it implicitly!"

"Impossible. My plan was perfect."

"Except for one thing, that we're dealing with Pawlenty."

"Who is Pawlenty, compared with Pogemiller?"

"Exactly. What have you to say, Number Three?" Number One presses a button, a door opens at the rear of the office, and in walks a hooded figure who slowly approaches. "I warned you. We do not accept failure, Number Three. You know the penalty."

"Yes, Number One."

"Our rules are very simple. If you fail, ..." The mysterious figure pulls off his hood, revealing Senator Bakk, obviously the new Senate Majority Leader. Number Five gasps in total surprise and faints.

"Pawlenty is still in charge and the tax increases are not yet enacted."

"Don't worry, Number One! There's still time!"
To be continued? No, you know how this one should end.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

If Only Head Start Did Work

Early on in his administration, President Obama vowed to end programs that don't work. Finally, I thought, the end of Head Start, which even the Washington Post reports as having no lasting effects. But of course, he did the opposite, ending the highly successful voucher program in Washington DC.

Via my friends at District 279 United, Chester Finn reports in The Washington Post that Obama is a believer in "zero to five" education and is spending accordingly.

As I've posted here, ECFE (Early Childhood Family Education) as it's known here is very popular with parents. It's deceptively intuitive, and the absence of measurable results seems to bolster these feelings in "what's not to like?" sense. Public school districts are eager to provide such services beyond whatever educational benefit they themselves believe, to capture and build parent relationships and support.

I'm fine with good old-fashioned American marketing and customer service, but only if the districts are being honest about the educational merits of these programs. Finn says there are four myths about ECFE.
  1. Everybody needs it.
  2. Preschool is educationally effective.
  3. Existing programs are shoddy.
  4. Head Start is terrific but doesn't serve enough kids.
You can read the article for the details, but let me quote Finn on Head Start:
This iconic, much-loved federal program, now costing more than $7 billion annually, has spent four decades denying that it's an education program, refusing to embrace a pre-K curriculum and being staffed by people -- now a major interest group -- many of whom are themselves ill-educated (and ill-paid). Though its statute pays lip service to "school readiness," Congress has forbidden Head Start to use readiness measures to evaluate program effectiveness.
In other words, success is prohibited by law. This is not what Art Rolnick of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis had in mind.

I'm not all that worked up about this. It would do more harm than good given its popularity and the dollars are small. I will say only with regret that it fits the "inputs only" template of contemporary K-12 public school thinking, and as such, has no reasonable chance of success.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

If it's legal, it's moral

If it's legal, it's moral. Isn't that one of the tenets of the Democratic Party? OK, and of some Republicans, too? If there's no controlling legal authority, that's the end of it, right, at least from a moral perspective?

Not this time, regarding the State Budget battle. Prime Minister Pawlenty's ploy to take the feather quills out of Pogemiller's and Kelliher's hands has them fuming. He's a dictator, he's going it alone, he's listening to the wrong people, he's out of touch, widows this, orphans that, and he probably cheats at golf. It may be legal, but it's sure as heck naughty.

I can think of any number of DFL shenanigans, like surprise re-districting plans and Cheri Yecke. We're probably going to see another regarding Steve Sviggum. Even Roger Moe got sandbagged by his own party, forcing him to renege on a deal his party had accepted just a week earlier. (Education Minnesota was unhappy, I believe.)

Know what I think of the DFL lecturing us about ethics? Pull my finger.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Chris Baker 5-9 AM

As I think many expected, Chris Baker now has the full morning drive slot, 5-9 AM on KTLK. I seldom listened before because he wasn't on until 7 AM, but now I can. I'm looking forward to it. After all, he was terrific hosting the Jason Lewis Tax Rally.

Also good is that Laura Ingraham takes over the 8-11 pm slot, with Glen Beck moving to 9-11 am. Beck's plenty smart and a great talent, but just a bit too sensational for me.

Needed: A Real Minnesota Miracle

Last month I declared that while I think local public school districts generally do the best they can, our schools are generally short of our expectations. I'm not saying that our School Boards can't do better, but the overwhelming blame for our K-12 troubles belongs to the Minnesota Legislature. I ended asking, "what are the public schools to do?" I answered "Do what you can, within the myriad of regulations. And one other thing ..."

The rather wandering, unfocused Editorial in today's Minneapolis Star Tribune titled "Considering a new 'Miracle' for schools" prompts me to now drop that other shoe. The School Boards of Minnesota must come to grips with the fact that the Minnesota Legislature is far less committed to K-12 education as they once were. There is no point in meekly asking, "Please sir, I want some more."

We do need a new Minnesota Miracle for education in this State. Not a cobbled patchwork of tax increases, but one forged of resolution, a new dedication to excellence. Give our children a total, competent educational experience like I was fortunate to receive many decades ago, one that may or may not be more expensive than today. That was the purpose of the original Minnesota Miracle, initially successful but as the Editorial notes, "different administrative philosophies on state spending and economic downturns chipped away at [it]." While the shift to more state funding is still largely there, the commitment was lost some years ago, and not just financially.

The Legislature seems almost uninterested in K-12 education these days. I'd rate it number 4 or 5, but of course, the DFL never really sets priorities these days. It's just some number of billions to pencil in the budget somewhere. Any remaining commitment by the Legislature (or the Governor) to academic improvement left town with Cheri Yecke.

This used to be the DFL's top issue, even if they did earn a reputation as being a subsidiary of Education Minnesota. Now, socialized medicine, transportation and local government aid top their leader board, maybe even higher education. Their leaders don't talk about it much, largely leaving it to back-benchers like Rep. Mindy Greiling. Sure, they're talking about it, the Administration's talking about it, but it's light without heat. There's no passion for progress, no outrage for failure.

School Board members should ask themselves why they bother to send delegations to plead for funding. Truth is, the bus is traveling in the wrong direction. It is our Representatives and Senators that should be traveling, visiting their constituent districts. It is our Senators and Representatives that we must hold accountable.

Money won't be enough. More money seems to cause failure, if anything. Mostly what our districts need is freedom. Freedom from complex and unstable funding. Freedom from unnecessary regulations and second-guessing. Freedom to pursue excellence as the parents best see fit, which may include private alternatives or home schooling.

Many years ago, I worked all night to cajole the near impossible out of my overworked mainframe computer to get out the monthly financial reports due that morning. I came up about three hours short. The Chief Financial Officer took me aside, thanked me for my extraordinary effort, but suggested I take no consolation in that effort per se. I had still failed. It wasn't a threat, just some good mentoring that gave me the right perspective going forward. I was never late again.

That's the sort of no excuses commitment I expect in the next Minnesota Miracle. If at first you don't succeed, the next person we hire or elect will.

Health Warning

The Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) is back with yet another dire warning. The bogeyman this time? Salt.

This organization's name is about as honest as "Employee Free Choice Act" or "Fairness Doctrine." As such, be advised: Nothing this group says can be taken at face value. I have found much of what they say to be false, and all of it lacks perspective. They promote a life style devoid of flavor and occasion.

I recently heard a doctor admit that salt is not a problem for the vast majority of us, at least 90% by one estimate. John Stossel also reported on this. For the minority, simple alternatives are cheap and effective. Your doctor will let you know if you're one of them, and even then, salt is not life-threatening. If it were, the human race never would have made it this far given that salt was the primary means of food preservation before refrigeration.

That doesn't mean you should feel free to salt with abandon. Use it in moderation, like everything else. There's a time for movie theater popcorn, Mexican food, Chinese food, and trips to the delicatessen. But for fear you might eat Fettuccine Alfredo five nights a week, the CSPI would sooner outlaw it, in the public interest.

By the way, the celebrated American chef James Beard observed that most people under-salt while cooking, making diners reach for the salt at the table and wind up consuming more total salt as a result. Watch the TV chefs, adding a little salt at several stages.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Moron Mail

Browsing today's Letters to the Editor in the Minneapolis Star Tribune reminded me how much I miss the "Moron Mail" posts at the Kool Aid Report. Oh, the anatomical fun Learned Foot would have had with a couple of the names!

We have a week left in the Legislative Session, GM and Chrysler are going down the tubes, Swine Flu is everywhere, but the Letter of the Day fusses over Patrick Reusse's assessment of Frisbee golf.

Another writer reminds us in the GOP that the DFL exists and, like, has valuable ideas! Prime Minister Pawlenty is just posturing when he should be capitulating compromising. Like, it's so unfair! But the next letter tops this easily, contending that global warming and Pawlenty will bring Mississippi's climate and austere level of government services here before long.

But the howler is about my favorite boondoggle, Light Rail:
"Bringing clean, quiet, and efficient LRT to University Avenue will give people an appealing alternative to driving. This has the potential to make University Avenue a much more economically vibrant and attractive place than it is today."
I've been at the Lake Street / Midtown LRT station several times this year, and I still haven't found that art supply store then Mayor Sharon Sayles-Belton envisioned.

Don't these moonbats remember that we have at least four months of winter here? Residents are going to walk four blocks or more to the LRT come rain or come shine? Carrying packages? And how the neighborhood will love those quiet trains every 10 minutes. Stand by the Metrodome sometime and listen to the Hiawatha come screeching and squealing around the bend. Efficient? Imagine spending the same money just sprucing up University Avenue itself, including bus lanes if you like.

In fact, how about some nicer buses, too, providing a much more comfortable ride. But our letter writer no doubt prefers sitting on hard plastic facing backwards in a drafty trolley car.

Hey, moonbat! There was a reason, several actually, why Minneapolis and other cities tore up those streetcar tracks decades ago. Come join us in the 21st century!

Monday, May 11, 2009

Wrong Metaphor

I saw this amusing paragraph in this morning's Minneapolis Star Tribune regarding the State Budget impasse:
Late last week, unable to achieve a united front on earlier tax bills that had soared up to $2.2 billion, DFL leaders outflanked Republicans with a surprise maneuver that sent the $1 billion tax package roaring through both bodies on partisan votes Friday night and on to Pawlenty, who vetoed it.
Outflanked? When I hear "outflanked" I think of Washington crossing the Delaware, Patton liberating France, "Nuts!" and Waterloo. Actually, Waterloo might be appropriate, from Napoleon's perspective that is. It was the Duke of South St. Paul's counter-thrust compromise that today caught the DFL off guard.

But as to the general situation the DFL has spent months creating for itself, only one metaphor will do: Dunkirk.

Comments Problem

I've had two reports of not being able to comment on some posts, and this morning I now see the problem. It's actually my problem, so I know what mistake to avoid going forward. Unfortunately, I cannot fix the faulty ones and republishing would break True North and any other links.

So please accept my apologies and consider this an open thread to comment on those past posts.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Can't Anyone Here Play This Game?

A few Jason Lewis Tax Rally's ago we chanted some insults at then Senate Majority Leader Roger Moe. As I think I've posted here since, I've come to respect him more and more. I speak not of his policies, but of his leadership and integrity. We didn't know what we had until we lost it, first to the serial liar Dean Johnson, then Larry Pogemiller in 2006. Meanwhile, Margaret Anderson Kelliher came out of nowhere to become Speaker of the House when the GOP lost control in 2006.

Both of these leaders are incompetent. So are their lieutenants, Taryl Clark and Tony Sertich. They've had two years to learn their jobs, but the events this past week show no tangible improvement. Again, forget the policies and proposals for the moment. Look at the process and the resulting lack of progress. When even the normally undemanding media is openly complaining, even the DFL must admit they have a problem.

Look at this $ 992 million tax bill, just announced. Gone, suddenly gone, are the "thoughtful" Senate and House bills that made their way through weeks of deliberation. All that work for nothing, replaced by something hurriedly cobbled together, a bill they could have written in January. It needn't have waiting for the February forecast, but OK, they could have written it March. Instead, we see it in May, with two weeks left in the session. I have to believe even a few in the DFL were surprised and disappointed by this.

The left hand in the Senate clearly doesn't know what the other left hand in the House is doing. Within each chamber, the absence of leadership allows the committees to wander listlessly, worrying about dogs eating landscaping mulch.

To my untrained mind, this session has only one real purpose for the DFL: get Pawlenty. That's what the "listening" tours were about. That's what all this posturing the past two months has been about. And now it's May, crunch time. As this new tax bill concedes, operation "Get Pawlenty" is headed for the rocks.

What Pogemiller and Kelliher don't understand is that they're no match for Pawlenty in a political duel. They have only their strength in numbers, and those numbers should seriously think about who they're following and why.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Want to get away?

I'm like Joe Soucheray. Most of the inventions I dream up have already been invented.

It was a nice day I thought, left early to walk home like I did yesterday, about 5.5 miles. I took the bus to work yesterday and today. Alas, it rained just enough to force a pit stop at Mad Jack's in Brooklyn Park, where I now am live-blogging.

Maybe I need a life, but I dug out some work to do while sipping an adult beverage. I don't know it's the beer, the bartender, or simply being away from the office, but I'm getting far more done here than had I stayed. It reminds me of a few weeks ago when I was just not happy with the approach I had taken to a problem, but driving on the way to Weight Watchers had one of the best ideas in years. That one idea saved me two weeks of work at least, and like most good ideas, was simpler and cleaner.

I'm wondering if any bars or restaurants have figured this out, provided laptop friendly facilities with the necessary space, power, and maybe even a wired broadband connection. But Wi-Fi is fine, too, like here at Mad Jack's.

It's almost 4 pm. Not sure where or when diminishing returns set it, but I think I'll risk it with one more beer. I'm not driving and hopefully the Legislature hasn't come up with RTWI - riding transit while intoxicated.

A Self-Negating Prophecy

On True North this morning, the Chief reports on the "compromise" tax increase that a includes the new fourth income tax bracket. It's big, 9 percent for joint returns over $ 250,000, projected to raise over $ 500 million.

The bad news? It's a job-killer, of course, and worse than usual. It's retroactive to January 1st to maximum the take from those who will now leave or move their businesses all the earlier in response.

The good news? As Wesley Mouch would say, it's only to address the temporary national conditions. It will blink off "in 2014 if the February, 2013 forecast reflects a $500 million balance at end of FY 2013." Sure it will. Blink this!

It will never happen. Barring a welcome, needed resurgence in GOP numbers if not outright control, the 2011-2012 Legislature will do everything possible to be sure such a forecast never happens. It's quite unlikely regardless, but the DFL is not going to let hundreds of millions of dollars slip through their fingers to please this small number of voters. If it's close, build another light rail line.

It truly bothers me that the DFL thinks that Minnesotans of any political stripe would believe a word of this. The media? Let's wait and see.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Chicken or Egg? Poverty and Education

Nothing beats an involved parent when it comes to getting a quality K-12 education for a child. It works everywhere, from Minneapolis North to Wayzata, the big difference being in the number (percentage) of involved parents. This is then extrapolated by equating low involvement with low incomes to say that poverty itself is the big explanation for the "achievement" gaps between "rich" and "poor" districts.

Once again we must remember that correlation is not causation, that if A and B rise and fall together there are multiple possibilities. A might affect B, B might affect A, both may be affected by a third factor C, or the whole thing may just be coincidental. To that end, consider a recent article from US News & World Report article by the Chancellor of the New York Department of Education, Joel I. Kline. He thinks poverty is a symptom, not a problem, saying that "America will never fix poverty until it fixes its urban schools."

After citing how Washington D.C. schools spend the most and achieve the least, he challenges the conventional wisdom of poverty (and race) explaining poor results.
If the academic achievement of poor black students varies substantially from district to district, the mere fact of being black and poor cannot explain why low-income black students in Washington are years behind their peers in some big cities. By contrast, if extra spending and additional resources really were the antidote for the achievement gap, black students in D.C. should handily outstrip most of their urban peers.
Kline's larger point is that "socio-economic status" is too often accepted as an excuse not to work harder, as if that would be throwing good money after bad. Yet, some Charter schools seem to be able to do so, obtaining spectacular results in some cases, and for less money that Washington D.C. is spending.

Weather Weenies in HD

It's going to rain this afternoon - in St. Louis County, where the National Weather Service posted a severe thunderstorm warning. That's close enough for the WCCO Weather Weenies, who are running the biggest crawl yet on The Oprah Show my wife is watching.

This crawl takes up nearly the bottom fourth of the HD picture, which is ridiculous given that the bottom half of that crawl is completely empty. Even more cute is how the crawl disappears when Oprah says "when we come back" and returns after the commercials are done. Again, this storm is hundreds of miles away, and given that the warning expired at 4:30 pm, could not possibly hit the Twin Cities.

Keep it up you local weather weenies. Keep crying wolf until someone gets killed. Meanwhile, watch your annoyed audience find alternatives on cable, satellite, DVD, and the Internet.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Breakin' all the Rules

Guess what? The Teachers Retirement Association (TRA) pension plan doing about as well as most of our retirement portfolios. Do they suck it up like we have? Not if they can get a bailout from the Legislature as Education Minnesota has requested.

How much? Oh, a little over $ 200 million. But hey, we pay nothing until 2011! Of course, by then the number could be $ 400 million. Did we mention that we're lowering the retirement age, but not to worry. The employee contributions are being increased to handle that. It seems to me that they should make the fund solvent first with those increased contributions, and according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune article, the Minnesota Taxpayers Association (the other one!) seems to agree.

In this new world of Obama where contracts and existing laws are no longer honored, let's compromise. It is long past time to get these public pensions into the 21st century, converting them from defined benefit to defined contribution. We'll give you the money if and only if, when and only when you make this transition. In other words, this will be the last bailout.

Like I said, forget whatever laws are on the books. The One has shown the way with Chrysler, that the last shall be first, that the end justifies the means. Just do it.

Seriously, we have two years to get this done, and it does address the "fairness" that both the national Democratic Party and the DFL keep bringing up. If we have to watch our funds drop, so should the teachers and anyone else in obsolete pension plans.

Tax Cut Rally TV Coverage

I recorded the four major Twin Cities television stations news broadcasts for the 24 hours following the 2009 Tax Cut Rally. First, thanks once again to KTLK, Minnesota Majority and the many other sponsors of this event, the best ever I think. My only complaint was that the lines were so long at the food booths that I had to settle for an ice cream treat. And no, cheese curds are not an option.

Taking them in channel number order, channel 4 once again validated its "WDFL" moniker by spiking the story. We saw their truck, but apparently they were too busy covering their friends inside the Capitol. There was nothing on the events outside the building, not at 5 pm, 6 pm, or 10 pm, nor on their 10 am Sunday broadcast.

Channel 5 was the opposite, carrying it at 5 pm, 6 pm, 10 pm, and again on Sunday at 6 am and 8 am. Reporter Maggie Newland was on site, and on the air live at 5 and 6 pm during cleanup. The Saturday 5 pm (1:27) and 6 pm (1:20) were the longest, the rest about 1 minute each. I'll again say that KSTP-TV has the best local TV news, once again earning my trust.

Channel 9 is a more modest operation, and had a full sports calendar that overlaid their normal Saturday 5:30 pm news and delayed their 10 pm news by about 30 minutes. So I'll give them a pass for not covering the rally, this year anyway.

Channel 11 gave it about 45 seconds on its 6 pm and 10 pm broadcasts. They have no Sunday morning shows. The 6 pm version was a bit troubling, showing the "spay" and "pimp" signs when there were so many good ones. One of them is now on my masthead above. But good as channel 5's coverage was, the KARE-11 10 pm broadcast did the best job of capturing the spirit of the rally. And let's also give them credit for any coverage. Channel 5 was the only station to cover it last year.

I especially wanted to see the crowd size estimates. Two years ago, the obvious thousands present were presumed to be hundreds by WCCO-4 and dozens by KARE-11. This year, only one broadcast each station made a guess, but they both said thousands this time, finally getting it right.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Going to the Tax Cut Rally

I haven't missed one yet, the Jason Lewis Tax Cut rally at the Capitol, and I'll make this one, too. I like the later date, too. Besides the much better odds on the weather, it's much more in keeping with the Legislative calendar. The DFL only recently released their tax proposals, and the battle is now fully joined with just days left in the Regular Session.

I really wanted to go to the April 15th Tea Party, but I was just too done in with work at the time.

I'll be out early, getting in some walking miles around Lake Calhoun, ending at Uptown where I'll catch the 21A to downtown St. Paul. I'll be listening to The David Strom Show and the NARN of course, on my Walkman. I hear there will be food booths there, so lunch is covered.

Afterward, I'll be checking on the TV news coverage, see how many of our local reporters can tell the difference between hundreds and thousands this year.