[Speed Gibson,
Thursday January 10, 2008 at 7:41pm]
Remembering 2004
Rush Limbaugh had a good observation about polling gone wrong. Remember how all the exit polling showed John Kerry clearly ahead in 2004? One of his entourage said that Election Day, "May I be the first to call your Mr. President?"
But the pollsters were wrong and President Bush was re-elected. There were recriminations a la 2000, focusing on Ohio. The pollsters couldn't be wrong; clearly there must be tampering. But the gap was too large. In the words of Hugh Hewitt, "if it ain't close, they can't cheat."
Now, here in New Hampshire, the pollsters forecast a double digit win for Obama, but Clinton winds up winning narrowly. The turnout is higher than expected. There is a shortage of paper ballots and a noticeable difference in results between paper and electronic voting.
This time, though, there isn't a peep in the press or the party, almost relief in fact. Some were feeling guilty for getting too caught up in the Obama moment.
The explanation? Why the voters must have lied to the pollsters. Some told them publicly they were voting one way but voted the another. Some McCain supporters must have gone to the wrong line. Others said they weren't going to vote, but changed their mind as soon as they hung up the phone, that the calls themselves raised the turnout.
But fundamentally, the pollsters were once again right, or at least did the best they could with these inscrutable, irascible voters. No need to look for any irregularities.
But the pollsters were wrong and President Bush was re-elected. There were recriminations a la 2000, focusing on Ohio. The pollsters couldn't be wrong; clearly there must be tampering. But the gap was too large. In the words of Hugh Hewitt, "if it ain't close, they can't cheat."
Now, here in New Hampshire, the pollsters forecast a double digit win for Obama, but Clinton winds up winning narrowly. The turnout is higher than expected. There is a shortage of paper ballots and a noticeable difference in results between paper and electronic voting.
This time, though, there isn't a peep in the press or the party, almost relief in fact. Some were feeling guilty for getting too caught up in the Obama moment.
The explanation? Why the voters must have lied to the pollsters. Some told them publicly they were voting one way but voted the another. Some McCain supporters must have gone to the wrong line. Others said they weren't going to vote, but changed their mind as soon as they hung up the phone, that the calls themselves raised the turnout.
But fundamentally, the pollsters were once again right, or at least did the best they could with these inscrutable, irascible voters. No need to look for any irregularities.